Innehållsförteckning för 1054 från MoneyWeek

“It’s going to become harder for passive funds to pose as neutral vehicles for index tracking” Last week was a tough week for Big Oil, with ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron all losing climate-related battles with varying consequences (Alex explains the details on page 7). Perhaps not coincidentally, the last couple of weeks have been rather positive for the oil price itself. A barrel of Brent crude will now cost you more than $70. This is partly due to growing confidence in the strength of the recovery, as well as ongoing caution on the part of the Opec oil cartel about pumping more oil. But I suspect it’s also got something to do with the fact that if you make it harder for big oil companies to produce more oil, then…

Bank transfer scam victims are losing over £491 a minute, or £700,000 every day, according to research by consumer group Which?, says Rupert Jones in The Guardian, while the banking industry’s approach to reimbursing victims is “unfair and inconsistent”. Data from UK Finance revealed a total of £412m has been lost across 189,000 cases of bank transfer fraud between May 2019 and the end of 2020. TV presenter Dr. Christian Jessen (pictured) must pay Northern Ireland first minister Arlene Foster £125,000 plus legal costs after libelling her on Twitter. In December 2019, he shared the unfounded claim that the former DUP leader was having an affair, says the BBC. Jessen did not delete the tweet – which a judge described as“grossly defamatory” – until around two weeks after he first…

“The inflation-hedge viewpoint is an article of faith in the crypto community. The logic goes that bitcoin will become the asset of last resort when inflation finally makes fiat currencies worthless... Typically the best hedge against inflation is just the stockmarket... the majority of the time inflation is caused by strong consumer demand, which also benefits stocks... Inflation caused by excess deficits or ‘currency debasement’ is more complex... stocks, bitcoins, commodities and gold are all denominated in US dollars, currency depreciation causes upward pressure on their prices... [so] financial assets... should all act as inflation hedges [to some extent]... But... what if it’s a really bad situation where hyperinflation destroys the currency? In that case [opt for] three... assets: a bag of gold, a fuel-efficient vehicle with a full tank…

Five to buy Daily Mail and General Trust The Times Shares in this sprawling media group have been buoyant recently amid optimism over the forthcoming flotation of Cazoo, the “hotshot online car dealer” in which DMGT holds a $1.35bn stake. The group’s exhibition business is still weighed down by reopening uncertainty, but the outlook for the publishing side is brightening. Known for mid-market and freesheet newspapers such as the Daily Mail and Metro, the group is now moving into more specialist titles, recently acquiring New Scientist magazine for £70m. Such “knowledge-based and comment-heavy titles… may prove lucrative in the digital future”. A healthy balance sheet gives it the firepower to continue expanding. Risk-tolerant investors may want to get onboard. 866p SmartSpace Software The Mail on Sunday Research finds that over…

• The “umpteenth round of restructuring” at M&S may actually be working, says Nils Pratley in The Guardian. The group announced a £201m pre-tax loss in the year to 27 March, due largely to restructuring costs. Strip those out and it turned a small profit of £41.6m. The economy is recovering now, while the group’s net debt fell last year. It has a clearer plan about how to dispose of unprofitable stores. The website is “no longer an industry joke”. I spy “green shoots”. • Tin prices are at an all-time high, says Lex in the Financial Times. So ex-JPMorgan banker Ian Hannam, aka “the King of Mining”, has joined forces with the co-founder of Moneysupermarket, Simon Nixon, to restart production at Devon’s Drakelands tungsten-tin deposit. Their Tungsten West venture…

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson has “admitted that he lost out to the Treasury” in a row over education funding after a £1.4bn package was criticised for being inadequate, says Henry Zeffman in The Times. The £1.4bn includes £1bn for 100 million hours of tutoring for disadvantaged pupils (equivalent to £50 per pupil in England) and £250m for teacher training and development, says Sean Coughlan on the BBC website. The money is around a tenth of the £15bn total reportedly recommended by Kevan Collins, the education recovery commissioner, says Haroon Siddique in The Guardian. The US is spending £1,600 per head; the Netherlands, £2,500. The effects of school closures are “mind-boggling, particularly on disadvantaged children, who are now experiencing a massively widening attainment gap with their wealthier peers”, says Robert Taylor…

The bosses of 278 charities are paid more than the prime minister’s £157,372 salary, says Hayley Dixon in The Daily Telegraph. Together, they employ 2,500 staff members on salaries of over £100,000 a year, according to the paper’s analysis. Nick Moakes, chief investment officer of the Wellcome Trust, was the highest earner. He took home almost £4.7m in salary and bonuses last year, £1.3m more than in 2019. The health research charity also paid 90 staff over £100,000, including director Jeremy Farrar, who earned £483,788, while seven employees made over £1m. The charity said pay was linked to performance and that it has brought its investment team in-house. Medical charities accounted for around a fifth of the charities on the list. Meanwhile, Cancer Research, the RNLI, Refuge, Barnardo’s, the NSPCC,…

“I feel really quite stoked at the moment. I feel really quite energised about the much improved performance of the UK stockmarket in 2021,” says Nick Train, reports Jeremy Gordon in Citywire. Train, one of the UK’s best-known fund managers, told investors of his optimism during a webinar last week, noting that the FTSE All-Share has this year solidly beaten the US Nasdaq index. It’s a performance his trust has had difficulty matching – the Finsbury Growth & Income trust (which has a market-beating long-term record) returned 1.2% in the half-year to the end of March, compared to an 18.5% leap in its benchmark, as recovery plays trounced the “quality” growth stocks Train tends to favour. He has apologised to investors for this underperformance, but believes the market is underappreciating…

Although I have extolled the new technology upstarts, I do not advocate buying any. Most are losing money and I’m not smart enough to distinguish the few swans from the ugly ducklings. For a global spread the sole UK financials investment trust is the Polar Capital Global Financials Trust (LSE: PCFT). Well-diversified with a 2.6% yield (likely to rise fast) and trading on a small premium to net asset value (NAV), it looks a sensible bet. A more interesting, but riskier trust is the £1.1bn, three year-old Chrysalis Investments (LSE: CHRY), which has a very heavy weighting towards unlisted fintechrelated companies before they come to market. Performance has been good, yet it trades on a 3% discount to NAV. The negative, in my view, is the egregious performance fee. There…

• Savers who have built up multiple small pension accounts when moving from job to job could soon benefit from a ban on flat charges. The government has launched a consultation on plans to ban charges levied as fixed-cash fees – as opposed to percentage-based fees – on pension funds below acertain size. Pension campaigners have long argued that fixed fees can rapidly erode small pots of savings. The ban could apply on accounts of up to £100, the consultation suggests. • Gig-economy companies in sectors such as food delivery and travel are under pressure to offer staff occupational pensions following a series of court rulings on workers’ status. The Pensions Regulator, which polices the occupational pension sector, has this month announced it is to begin pushing such companies to…

Electric-vehicle manufacturer Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) has epitomised the boom in tech shares. Despite predictions from a range of pundits that the surging stock was about to slump, it has gone from strength to strength, while the group has started turning a profit. Each of my three recommendations that you short it, in March 2017, April 2018 and March 2019, has lost money. Even though Tesla’s shares have fallen after CEO Elon Musk’s foray into bitcoin, they have still risen 17-fold in two years. Nevertheless, there are some solid reasons to think that the share-price surge may be overdone. Firstly, the enthusiasm for electric cars among governments around the world, with the UK announcing last November that it planned to ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2030, is…

In the last twelve months the UK’s prospects have improved significantly thanks to December’s trade deal with the EU and strong progress with the Covid-19 vaccinations programme. In our view there is around 15% GDP growth available over the next two years. The revival in sentiment towards the UK has been particularly good news for the small- and mid-cap areas that form the lion’s share of our portfolio. The UK overall still looks cheap in absolute and relative terms, with markets enjoying a text-book recovery as the safer large-cap companies rise. Laggards tend to be the small-cap firms, which are less well researched. “British stocks still look cheap in both absolute and relative terms” Our TM CRUX UK Special Situations Fund seeks out companies of all sizes where ongoing changes…

£22.99, reduced to £18.99 in a “mix six”, majestic.co.uk The delicious 2018 is perilously low in stock in store (and has sold out online), but I am told there will be no out-of-stock calamities for this wine! The Mornington Peninsula region, situated an hour south of Melbourne, makes arguably the finest boutique pinot noir in the world, outside of the Côte d’Or in Burgundy. I hosted an online masterclass last month and every single wine was a winner. I urge you to seek out examples from Moorooduc Estate, Paringa Estate, Ten Minutes by Tractor, Kooyong, Ocean Eight, Scorpo, Crittenden Estate and my featured Stonier. These are all elite wineries with epic wines and I do not use these descriptors lightly. Stonier is the least expensive wine in the line-up and…

Poor Jeff Bezos. He’s the richest man in the world: $188bn at the last count. Yet, through no fault of his own, he is cast as a villain. An enemy of the people. A showoff with a carbon footprint as big as Texas. Now, it turns out he’s a tax-dodger, too. The progressive Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that Amazon had only paid a 9.4% federal income tax rate in 2020, less than half the statutory 21%, says LoveMoney. Patriotic Millionaires, a group of millionaires who believe in the rich paying more in tax, organised a protest. Activists gatherered outside Bezos’s homes, waving placards, despite the fact that the billionaire had come out in support of President Joe Biden’s proposal to raise corporate taxes. “The rich have already…

Business investment is undergoing a revival, says The Economist. Capital spending (capex) globally will soon be 20% above pre-pandemic levels and by 2022, the average S&P 500 company is expected to be spending about 10% more on factories and technology. “Semiconductor firms are engaged in one of the biggest… capex sprees” ever, which is “enormously significant”. Business investment in the US relative to GDP had been stagnant for decades; in Britain, pre-pandemic capex was 15% lower than in the late 1990s. Yet capex is the “secret sauce behind higher living standards”. Without it, productivity has been “sluggish”, leading to a “gnawing sense that capitalism was misfiring”. But now that consumers are spending again, firms are adjusting to a post-pandemic world with, for example, more online shopping. Big tech has led…

Stockmarkets have started 2021 well, but it may not seem like that for most UK investors. A strong pound has reduced year-to-date returns from the US, Europe and global indices from double digits in local currencies to 8.1%, 8.8% and 6.8% in sterling respectively. The UK, up by 10.8%, has done better but investment trusts have lagged, with the sector’s index up by just 4.2%. This is largely due to the switch from growth to value. Most trusts favour the former over the latter. After the extraordinary returns from growth investing last year, investors can hardly complain about a modest setback while value trusts were due some catch-up. From here, the bull and bear factors are evenly matched. The pessimists point to rising bond yields as evidence that the multi-decade…

Offices are gradually reopening, but the post-pandemic workplace will not be the same as the one we abandoned last spring, says Daren Fonda in Barron’s. The future is likely to include “more unassigned seating, privacy pods and spaces for small-group collaboration”. That means management will have to invest in new furniture, and Herman Miller, a maker of high-end office furniture and home furnishings, stands to gain. The rise of hybrid working also means more people are investing in a proper home office: Miller’s sales to this market surged by 326% year-on-year in its most recent quarter. It is also moving into other lucrative areas, recently launching a $1,600 chair for videogamers.…

Activists have inflicted a “Black Wednesday” on oil companies, says Jillian Ambrose in The Guardian. Supermajors suffered a “stunning series of defeats” last week in both the courtroom and the boardroom. Firstly, on 26 May a Dutch court ruled that Shell must cut its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels. It found that the group’s current plan for a 20% cut by the end of the decade was insufficient and risked breaching human-rights law. Later the same day, activist shareholders inflicted defeats on management at two American oil giants. At Chevron 61% of shareholders defied the board to vote in favour of a plan that would reduce carbon emissions by the firm’s customers. Meanwhile at ExxonMobil, green-minded activist shareholders won a proxy battle to win two…

At the time of the referendum on leaving the EU, official estimates put the number of people from the rest of Europe living and working in the UK at roughly three million. As it turns out, that was wildly wrong. Last week, we learned that 5.3 million have applied for “settled status” in the UK, the scheme that allows anyone from the EU already in the country to stay permanently. There might, of course, have been many more. There will be plenty who have decided to go home, especially with so much of the economy locked down over the last year. Even so, there were at least two million more than were counted. The British economy, in other words, has been relying on hiring lots of cheap staff mainly from…

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have endured a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks, partly because authorities across the world appear to be paying them more attention. Yet, judging by the US Federal Reserve’s recent comments, it’s not so much bitcoin but another type of crypto that worries central banks more than any other: “stablecoins”. “Central banks are taking private currencies seriously” We explain stablecoins in more detail below, but in short, the ideas is to create a cryptocurrency with a “stable” value, which means it can actually be used in practical day-to-day transactions as money – very much like government-issued or “fiat” currencies, such as the pound or dollar. While scepticism about crypto’s aspirations abounds, it’s very clear that central banks are taking these potential competitors seriously. In a recent speech,…

A crypto disaster is on the cards Claer Barrett Financial Times Young investors “hodling” their spare cash in cryptocoins, a “hugely volatile and unregulated asset class”, raises questions for “regulators, the wider investment industry and policymakers – not to mention parents”, says Claer Barrett. The potential for huge gains and “high entertainment value” explain its appeal, yet “endemic fraud, wild pricing swings and the ability to leverage trades makes crypto a dangerous place for unwary first-time investors”. And many young investors hold only crypto. Luno, the crypto exchange behind advertisements recently banned on the London underground, found that 55% had no other investments. But while Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey warns investors to be prepared to lose all their money, the central banks and their monetary policy decisions “hang…

Early next month sees the launch of a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) that aims to boldly go where no other ETF has gone before: space. ETF specialists HANetf and Procure Innovation are about to launch the Procure Space UCITS ETF in London with the irresistible ticker of YODA. Inevitably, science-fiction geeks focus on the adventurous end of this well-established industry, notably missions to Mars and the moon. And much of the time SpaceX, Elon Musk’s rocket company, crops up in the discussion. In April, for instance Nasa announced that it had selected the company’s Starship vehicle as the lunar lander for its Artemis programme to return to the moon. Musk’s launch business was up against Jeff Bezos-backed Blue Origin and Dynetics. A tiny market For all the excitement, however, the…

It’s getting more difficult to protect the value of cash savings against inflation. UK annual consumer price index (CPI) inflation spiked to 1.5% in April, with the Bank of England forecasting that it will hit 2.5% by the end of this year. Interest rates are not keeping up. The average easy-access savings account pays 0.16% , compared with 0.4% a year ago. Banks have little incentive to raise rates. Thanks to lockdowns the average UK household has now amassed £4,353 in “excess savings” (extra money saved in addition to normal saving), according to Investec. The banks are swimming in cash. Britain’s “big four” lenders (Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest) collectively took in more than £200bn in new deposits last year. App-based Atom bank currently offers the best easy-access…

Investing in e-commerce and payments businesses around the world should keep paying off nicely for years to come as global wealth increases. But the fastest growth in this area is likely to take place in Latin America. Rapidly expanding internet access from a low base, Covid-19-induced lockdowns and shop closures have all provided a big boost. This is borne out by another set of record-breaking results (see below) from the region’s dominant online-retail platform MercadoLibre (Nasdaq: MELI). Despite the impressive recent update, however, the shares have slipped by 30% from their peak in January as high-tech growth stocks have faltered globally. The decline has effectively removed their premium as a pandemic success story. For long-term investors this is an opportunity. Analysts at Morgan Stanley certainly seem to think so. They’re…

Last year was brutal for income investors. More than half of the companies in the FTSE 100 decided to cut, defer, or even cancel their payouts to shareholders. In some cases this was a voluntary measure in order to conserve cash during a time of uncertainty. In others, notably in the banking sector, pressure from regulators prompted companies to act. The outlook has improved, however. Investment platform AJ Bell notes that while a few companies have cut dividends so far this year, all the indications suggest that listed firms will be increasing them by around a fifth in 2022. But what might this mean for share-price returns? In theory a firm’s decision to increase dividends should have a neutral impact on share returns, since any money that the shareholders receive…

Shares in waste-management specialist Renewi (LSE: RWI) have bounced after it posted impressive results for the year to 31 March 2021 and upgraded its outlook for the subsequent 12 months. The group reported profits of €11m, an improvement from a loss of €77m the year before. Chalk it up to the increased interest in sustainability, the firm’s core selling point: it facilitates a “circular economy” by recycling waste into materials such as paper, plastic, building materials, compost and energy. Last year Renewi reused 7.9 million tonnes of waste. The stock has doubled in a year.…

Australian Jeffrey Revell-Reade, now aged 56, set up with his business partner Anthony May several brokerages – Tresaderns & Partners SL, Price Stone Group SL and Anderson McCormack SL – that ran out of Madrid in 2002. Over the next five years these brokerages used high-pressure “boiler room” sales tactics to sell US-listed shares in small startups, which supposedly had great potential, to UK investors. Revell-Reade would claim that as part of the deal the shares had a lock-up period that meant investors had to hold onto them for at least 12 months before they could sell them. What was the scam? Far from having great potential, the shares were either in shell companies or those that had long since ceased trading. Either way, they were worthless. May rerouted the…

• Naomi Osaka (pictured) is a “brilliant tennis player”, says Piers Morgan for MailOnline. “The big-serving Japanese star is the first Asian woman to become No. 1in the world rankings and has won four Grand Slam singles titles.” She is also the highe h t-paid female athlete in the world, raking in $55.2m over the past year, $5.2m in prize money and $50m from endorsement deals with the likes of Nike, Beats by Dre, Mastercard and Nissin. In fact, Osaka trails only fellow sporting heroes Roger Federer ($84m), LeBron James ($70m), and Tiger Woods ($62m) in the annual money stakes, according to sports business data firm Sportico. Osaka was fined $15,000 for refusing to talk to the media during the French Open on mental-health grounds. But given that she earns…

£105 The price of the set-lunch menu at Claude Bosi, a Michelin-starred restaurant in South Kensington – a 40% rise from £75 at the end of last year. Thirty of Britain’s 50 best-known restaurants have hiked prices since the end of 2020. Staff shortages, a higher minimum wage and captive, cash-rich consumers unable to go to the continent have all led to pricier meals. £1.2bn The annual savings car insurers have promised to pass on to drivers after the small claims limit for accidents rose from £1,000 to £5,000 on Monday under reforms to stamp out bogus whiplash claims. Drivers are set to save up to £35 a year in lower premiums. £18.75m How much Santander will spend on sponsoring London’s “Boris bikes” for another three years once its initial…

The US state of Ohio is encouraging people to get coronavirus vaccines by entering those who get at least one jab into its “Vax-a-Million” lottery, writes Jenna Romaine on The Hill. This week, Abbigail Bugenske became the first to win one of five prizes of $1m for the over-18s, while 14-year-old Joseph Costello won one of five college scholarships aimed at teens. “It’s not often that unions have much to celebrate in post-Thatcherite Britain”, notes Philip Aldrick in The Times. But last week they received two pieces of good news. Uber agreed to recognise the GMB union for its 70,000 private hire drivers – the first time that any ride-hailing app has accepted collective bargaining. And official figures for 2020 showed that union membership rose for the fourth year in…

China may have “slammed the brakes” on the commodities supercycle, says Craig Mellow in Barron’s. On 23 May regulators vowed “zero tolerance” towards “excessive speculation” in the market. They are unhappy about reports of hoarding by commodities firms. That sent local metals prices plunging, with iron-ore contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falling by 9.5%. Nevertheless, global copper prices are still up by 28% in 2021, while iron ore has gained more than 30%. China has enormous leverage in the industrial metals market, says Mellow. The economy consumes 70% of worldwide iron ore and 58% of its copper; 60% of the domestic steel industry is also state-owned. Many investors think we are at the dawn of a new commodities supercycle, but “a few words from the Chinese government” are giving…

Time to cash in your clunker? Prices of second-hand vehicles usually depreciate, but prices in America surged by 10% in April alone, the biggest jump since 1953; they are now up by more than 20% since the start of 2020. Consumers are keen to hit the road as lockdowns end, but the supply of new vehicles is constrained because of global chip shortages. Meanwhile, in the UK, data from Cap HPI shows that the average price of a three-year-old vehicle with 60,000 miles on the clock is on course to surge by 6.7% in May alone, says Izabella Kaminska in the Financial Times. Buyers are so desperate that they are even paying up for diesel vehicles, despite looming environmental rules that make them a less appealing buy.…

Investors in the US stockmarket are no longer as keen on initial public offerings (IPOs) asthey were earlier this year, say Eric Platt and Aziza Kasumov in the Financial Times. The first quarter of 2021 was “red-hot”: companies listing on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq in January and February rose by an average of more than 40% from their IPO price on the first day of trading. By late May this figure had fallen to 18%. The sums being raised are also dwindling. With one month of the second quarter remaining, 54 stocks have so far raised $18bn. In the first three months of the year 101 companies, excluding special purpose acquisition companies (Spacs), mustered $42bn.…

• Aston Martin’s CEO Tobias Moers (pictured) received a pay package for last year worth £1.5m, including a £142,000 bonus and £900,000 for leaving previous employer Mercedes during the year, says the Financial Times. Finance chief Ken Gregor, who also joined the luxury carmaker during the year, received £322,000, including a £67,000 bonus. Around 18% of investors voted against the pay report last week, following criticism from shareholder advisory groups of the board’s decision to pay executive bonuses for last year, when the car brand was bailed out by its now executive chairman, Lawrence Stroll. • Car dealer Pendragon has “sparked fury among its workforce” by putting 250 accounting jobs up for redundancy even as CEO and chairman Bill Berman kept a controversial £413,000 bonus as part of his £923,000…

One of the problems facing cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, is the fact that they fluctuate in value so wildly. Even if you are onboard with the idea of bitcoin, and are happy to believe that blockchain technology means that an independent, digital currency can be a trustworthy asset and a store of value, it’s hard to see it taking off as an everday alternative to pounds or dollars if it can go from being worth $30,000 one month to $60,000 the next, then right back down again. Even if consumers were happy spending it, shops would face an accounting nightmare. Stablecoins try to solve this problem. A stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency. But unlike bitcoin, a stablecoin aims to “peg” its value to that of another asset, such as…

‘“I don’t really buy physical gifts, but I support people. My mum and dad used to always talk about that feeling of not having money, and not having things is a big driver to make you want to take care of your family and have a different life. My little brother George wanted a new van because he’s a landscape gardener, so I got him one… Helping my mum get her own property was amazing, too – it’s what you dream of.” Fitness trainer Joe Wicks (pictured), whose YouTube series PE with Joe became a lockdown sensation, quoted in The Mail on Sunday “The difference between you and us is we bribe them in office and you bribe them after.” Conservative peer Baroness Warsi shares her Pakistan-born father’s view of…

When should you start saving for retirement and how much should you put by? The conventional answers to these questions are as soon as possible and as much as you can afford. But the conventional answers may be wrong, according to new research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). It is certainly true that the laws of compound interest mean money invested at an early age will work harder to deliver you a decent retirement income. But saving for a pension doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Money you move into it isn’t available for anything else. And that is potentially problematic. Debts take precedence The IFS’s modelling argues that once you take into account all your financial circumstances – rather than thinking about pensions in isolation – saving early…

In the past six weeks three of my six long tips have risen. Media group ITV climbed from 122p to 128p, cruise-ship operator Norwegian Cruise Line increased from $27.97 to $31.90 and construction firm Morgan Sindall Group went up from 1,918p to 2,205p. However, US housebuilder DR Horton fell from $95.72 to $95.29 and spread-betting firm Plus500 declined from 1,514p to 1,511p. What’s more, while transport group National Express fell from 309p to 304p, it dipped below 290p, the level at which I suggested that you close your position. Overall, then, my long tips (counting National Express) are making a total profit of £6,619, up from £6,380, My short tips are also a mixed bag, with three appreciating and two falling. Electric-lorry manufacturer Nikola increased from $10.29 to $14.96, cloud-computing…

Homeserve (LSE: HSV) is an emergency home-repairs and improvement company. The firm has grown rapidly in the US and now commands 10% of the North American market; “profits from across the pond” increased by 27% year-on-year in the 12 months to 31 March 2021, says Bryce Elder in the Financial Times. But domestic profitability is lagging far behind, and hasn’t recovered since its collapse between 2012 and 2014. Operating profit in the UK fell by 10% to £72.5m. The shares have slipped by 28% over the last 12 months.…