Innehållsförteckning för 1187 från MoneyWeek

“When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen.” Bob Farrell, a former head of research at Merrill Lynch, formulated ten rules of investment that are regularly quoted on Wall Street, albeit rarely acted upon. Today’s consensus that the US economy can avoid a “hard landing” – a recession following the rapid monetary squeeze it has just endured – brings that aphorism to mind. He also noted that “fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve”, which explains why many investors have abandoned caution and piled into the market (see page 4); the S&P 500 index is close to a new all-time high. Investors believe in a soft landing, with dearer money gently squeezing out inflation, slowing growth without killing it off. Markets are further encouraged…

London’s population is nearing nine million and is on course to reach ten million by 2040, says The Economist. “A finance-driven boom” and immigration have almost doubled the capital’s house price-to-earnings ratio since the early 1990s to more than 13, an increase that far outstrips changes in the ratio in other global centres like New York. A two-bedroom flat in Farringdon, which abuts the City of London, costs around £1m. Last year, the median private renter was shelling out 35% of their income in rent. Thankfully, there is scope to increase housing supply by repurposing disused office space – on average, central London workers go into the office just 2.3 days a week, less than other Britons and one of the lowest figures in the world.…

Results of a clinical trial “marking a step forward in the developing field of mRNA technology” have sent Moderna’s shares skyward, says James Farrell on Forbes. The trial of a new Moderna mRNA vaccine found that it “reduces the chance of relapse or death from skin cancer by half when paired with Merck’s immunotherapy drug Keytruda”. The results build on earlier data from the same study, which determined that “the combination of both treatments reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 44% and the chance of spread or death by 65%”. The results may still need to be confirmed by a final-stage trial, which began this summer, and could take four years, says Gerry Smith on Bloomberg. However, Moderna hopes regulators will ensure the treatment is available to patients…

Investors in Asian equities “are hopeful of a better year in 2024 after a dismal showing” for initial public offerings (IPOs) this year, says Reuters. Share sales in the Asia-Pacific region (including Japan) have declined in value by 20% this year to roughly $229bn, the weakest performance since 2012. High interest rates, resilient inflation and geopolitical tensions have dampened demand for listings across the region. However, investors are becoming more bullish now that interest-rate cuts are on the cards, although a series of elections in the region will create uncertainty. China was the region’s busiest IPO market in 2023, but the value of listings fell by 35% to $37.3bn.…

It’s a good time to run through the top political betting markets, which are unsurprisingly dominated by the outcomes of the upcoming US and UK elections. As you might expect, the overall winner of the US presidential election is the top market, with £7.46m matched on Betfair, and another £2.08m matched on Smarkets. In this case, Donald Trump is favourite to win at 2.38 (42%). In second place, with £4.9m matched on Betfair, is the identity of the Democratic nominee, with president Joe Biden favourite to get his party’s nod at 1.39 (71.9%). The contest for the Republican nominee is third, with £4.05m matched on Betfair. In this case punters put Donald Trump even more strongly in pole position at 1.17 (85.4%). In fourth place is the party that will…

Anyone glancing at their payslip, or preparing their tax return for next month, will already have had the idea that taxes are a lot higher than they used to be. Now it has been officially confirmed. A study by the OECD think tank last week found the state was taking 35.4% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% over the last year. More significantly, it was the highest level since the group started collecting tax-to-GDP data back in 2000. At the same time, a study by real-estate firm Altus found that the UK had the joint highest level of property taxes across the whole of the OECD club of developed nations, with the state taking 4% of GDP out of the economy through levies on houses and land. The UK doesn’t…

Two weeks ago, I said we should remove our oil-sector investment from the MoneyWeek exchange traded fund portfolio. By the time this issue reaches you, there’s a risk that could look like rather poor timing. Missile attacks on shipping in the Red Sea (see page 10) are leading several firms to stop sending oil tankers and container ships through the area, which will mean longer journey times. Some analysts suggest that this will lead to higher prices for oil and other goods. However, the response so far suggests that markets don’t believe that. Brent crude is trading at $78 per barrel, up a little since last week, but well down from almost $95 earlier this year. That makes sense: the oil market seems well-supplied, in part because US output has…

Activist investor Whitebox Advisors has become the latest foreign investor to urge Samsung C&T – one of the core firms in Korea’s giant Samsung conglomerate – to take steps to boost its share price, says Bloomberg. The US-based manager argues that Samsung C&T is trading at a discount of around 68% to its net asset value and that management could close the gap by adopting a clearer capital-allocation plan. Last month, City of London Investment Management called for Samsung C&T to pay a higher dividend and launch a share buyback, while hedge fund Palliser Capital has also suggested that it should overhaul its corporate governance and simplify the Samsung group’s complex structure to create one holding company.…

“I see people making billions now, and they wear it on chains, and they show it, and they drive it, and they’re proud of it – and this was ten thousand, not billion… But I just shouldn’t have said it, because I don’t need to share what I know my worth is. Knowing your worth is for yourself.” Model Linda Evangelista (pictured) on her comment in 1990 that she didn’t get out of bed for less than $10,000 a day, quoted in The Sunday Times “I gave up a very successful career in the City… My friends are on the rich list, and I live a modest life, I gave it up for a career in politics. Is this the biggest pay cheque I have ever had? Yes, what’s wrong…

awealthofcommonsense.com Robert Kiyosaki wrote one of the most-read personal-finance books of all time, Rich Dad, Poor Dad, says Ben Carlson. It contains some useful advice. But what is he up to these days? Sadly, he’s turned into a “doomer”. Earlier this month he was telling his readers to get cash out of the banks because a massive crash was coming. If that sounded familiar, it’s because he’s been saying it for years. Luckily, the internet now makes it easier to “keep track of charlatans and their terrible forecasting records”. Since 2009, Kiyosaki has been issuing warnings of a crash ceaselessly, even as the market embarked on a near-continuous uptrend. “Rich author, poor readers.” Sometimes the market is overvalued and it crashes. And it’s helpful to hear reasonable bearish arguments to…

The clear leader in autonomous mining vehicles is equipment manufacturer Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT). It currently has more than 580 unmanned haulage vehicles working around the world in 24 different mines. It has also developed a platform, Cat MineStar Solutions, that makes it easier to control a single machine remotely, automate multiple types of equipment across a mixed fleet, or implement a completely autonomous fleet of haul trucks that operate around the clock with no human intervention. Caterpillar currently trades on a 2024 price/earnings (p/e) ratio of 16 and yields 1.82%. Caterpillar’s main competitor in the automation of mining haulage is Japan’s Komatsu (Tokyo: 6301). Its autonomous haulage vehicles, which now operate in five countries – combined with its FrontRunner fleet management and dispatch platform – promise cost savings of up…

Last year, I poked fun at the annual “Ten outrageous predictions” charade, pointing out that it was a win-win exercise. If one of them actually happens, you are a genius for forecasting it. If none of them happen, well, you said that each one was very unlikely so you were still right. Still, I couldn’t resist a win-win bet, so I tagged along with my own list. I deliberately made my “predictions” less than “outrageous” in order to seek genius status. In fact, they worked out pretty well. 1 “Kamala Harris becomes president of the United States as Joe Biden is forced by ill health to step down.” Not yet, but still possible. More likely is that the Democrats draft in Michelle Obama at the last minute to avoid defeat…

● Protect yourself from bill rises in 2024 and switch broadband or phone provider today. “Some 26% of broadband and 34% of mobile-phone customers were out of contract at the end of June, according to the telecoms regulator Ofcom, and they could save hundreds of pounds by signing up for a new deal,” says George Nixon in The Sunday Times. According to the regulator, the average broadband customer could save £100 a year by shopping around for a better deal. Meanwhile, comparison website Uswitch estimates that you could save £360 a year at the end of your mobile-phone contract if you switch to a sim-only deal. Before you commit to a new contract check whether your new provider “imposes mid-contract price rises, where companies put up their bills each year…

● Pension savers seeking professional advice on how to turn their funds into regular retirement income will keep paying high fees for guidance, after regulators excluded it from a new “simplified advice” regime. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the City regulator, wants more people to access financial advice, and hopes its new regime, where reduced regulation will apply, will help cut the cost of advice on more straightforward matters. However, the FCA says that decisions about pension income, such as whether to go for income drawdown or an annuity purchase, were too complex to be classified as simplified advice. ● Thousands of people in their 60s and 70s should now start receiving letters from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) warning them that they may have been underpaid state…

The Oppenheimer of the digital age Who was the most significant CEO of the year? It’s a “no-brainer”, says MarketWatch. In the 12 months since OpenAI publicly launched its ChatGPT chatbot, and watched it go viral, it has upended the established pecking order of Silicon Valley, inspired a surge in AI investment that revitalised the flagging US stockmarket, and turned established notions of what the future might look like on their head. No product has had as much impact since the debut of the iPhone, and Sam Altman is “the public face of this transformation”. Altman, 38, led OpenAI out from the ivory tower – it started out as a small non-profit laboratory dedicated to academic research – and is a serial entrepreneur, known more for his investment nous than…

The best films and TV There has been an explosion in the number of documentaries and films about business and finance recently – not to mention the hit drama series Succession (see right). The Netflix series Big Vape: The Rise And Fall Of Juul was one of the most memorable. Over the four hours of running time, it tells the story of how a startup designed to wean people of cigarettes, by providing a safer alternative that would satisfy users’ cravings, soared to a multibillion-dollar valuation before imploding over concerns that it was causing a generation of teenagers to become addicted to its product. The documentary makers took the trouble to speak to people from all sides of the argument, including those who say that, by getting many smokers to…

Money 1. Between April and June 2023, UK wages grew at their strongest pace since records began, fuelling concern that a wage-price spiral could boost inflation despite 14 consecutive interest-rate hikes. What was the rate of annual growth in regular pay, excluding bonuses? 1) 8.7% 2) 7.8% 3) 7.5% 2. In order to curb soaring inflation, in November Turkey’s central bank raised its main interest rate by five percentage points to its highest level in nearly two decades. What was the rate? 1) 35% 2) 45% 3) 40% 3. In November 2023 chancellor Jeremy Hunt raised the National Living Wage (NLW) and adjusted it to include people over 21 (the previous minimum age was 25) for the first time. What is the new NLW that is expected to take effect…

The contract Japanese baseball player Shohei Ohtani (pictured) has signed to play for the Los Angeles Dodgers, worth $700m, is the most valuable ever signed in professional US sport, says Leo Lewis in the Financial Times. That figure is bigger than Japan’s projected domestic sales of baseball equipment for 2023. But what makes the contract so remarkable is that for each of the next ten years, Ohtani will be paid a mere $2m in salary. For each of the following ten years (when he will be into his 40s and possibly no longer playing), Ohtani will receive $68m, a sum greater than the total annual wage bill at his former team, Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters. This “Schrodinger’s bat” of a deal will leave the Dodgers with enough money to buy other…

Shares in diet group WW (formerly WeightWatchers) climbed by 7% last week after US television personality Oprah Winfrey, a board member and one its largest investors, said she was taking weight-loss medication as a “maintenance tool”, says Erich Schwartzel in The Wall Street Journal. Her statement introduces “star wattage” to the debate about weight-loss drugs that have “rocked the pharmaceutical, food and diet industries since their widespread adoption”. Her comments come as the company has begun its long-awaited shift to incorporate such prescriptions alongside its... “iconic count-your-points eating plan”, in the hope it will help WeightWatchers stock “reverse a steep, years-long decline”. WW’s change of plan is a “significant shift” for a company that has long focused on “behaviour-based strategies” such as alterations in diet and exercise, counting calories and…

Four to buy Dr. Martens Shares Shares in this British bootmaker have lost 75% of their value since 2021 after several profit warnings. While the record is discouraging, on nine times earnings the risks look priced in. Revenue has risen by an average of 14% per year since 2020, but the execution has been poor. If management does rectify operational problems, then there could be decent upside for the shares, but even if it fails to do so, the firm could well attract an “opportunistic predator” that recognises the “untapped” potential of this iconic brand. 92p Hochschild Mining The Mail on Sunday This Latin America-focused precious-metals miner operates in Peru, Argentina and Brazil. The shares have fallen by 33% in five years amid “political turbulence”. A new CEO is shaking…

● ”Games Workshop’s sci-fi and fantasy miniatures provide war without end to its devotees,” says Lex in the Financial Times. “But the group must avoid one conflict at all costs.” A rights deal with Amazon to produce TV series and films based on characters and series from its Warhammergames could bring a new source of income as well as attracting new players and boosting sales of its products. The success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Barbie, which gave a big boost to Nintendo and Mattel this year, show the potential. Yet Games Workshop has been slowly moving its intellectual property into the mainstream for many years through video games adaptations that already generate rising royalties. The possibility of expanding into TV and film has been long anticipated. The…

When most of us put money in the stockmarket, we go long – buying shares that we believe will go up. Short-sellers do the opposite – they aim to profit from a share-price falling. A short-seller borrows the shares from someone who already owns them and sells them in the open market. If the price falls, the short-seller buys the shares back at the lower price, returns them to the lender and pockets the profit. So, for example, say you want to “short” shares in troubled high-street chain Beta Retail, which currently trades at £1 a share. You borrow 10,000 shares from an index fund (which owns them because it simply tracks the underlying index) in return for a small fee. You then sell them. So you now have £10,000…

■ Those who invested in Augmentum Fintech when it launched in 2018 have had a frustrating five years, says The Telegraph. At 105p, shares in this backer of “challenger banks and fintech disrupters” are significantly down from a 2021 peak of 173p. Its market value amounts to little more than the latest reported value of its top three holdings – small business lender Tide, subscription platform Grover and online lender Zopa – plus its £51.8m in cash. Most of its holdings are growing well: the top ten, which account for 82% of assets, increased revenues by an average of 74% in the year to September. The fund has made five profitable exits since launch, at an average gain of 30%, and has used the proceeds wisely to make follow-on investments…

unherd.com/thepost In Rishi Sunak’s evidence to the Covid inquiry, the prime minister explained that studies based on quality-adjusted life years, or QALYs, found that the first Covid lockdown generated costs higher than the likely benefits. The KC questioning him shut him down using words that showed he had no idea what QALYs are, says David Paton. But this is a big issue. QALYs are a standard tool for evaluating the benefits of a health intervention that help us determine whether they are cost-effective in terms of additional years of healthy life. The basic idea is not controversial – if lockdowns prevented some deaths but imposed high costs, including deaths, on others, then we need to figure out where the right balance lies. A number of peer-reviewed studies have shown that,…

High in the hills above Kandy, the tea planters of Sri Lanka have a problem. An ageing society and a lack of willing younger workers means they haven’t got enough tea pluckers. Those who will work want to see a sharp rise from their current (very low) income levels and the managers are resigned to seeing their wage bills double. But they are also looking for ways to improve productivity – to pay for those wages. Everyone is looking at machinery that can double or triple the amount of tea each worker can pick in a day. This all seems pretty obvious. If you haven’t enough workers, you need to find a way to do the same with fewer, and you need to pay the workers you do have more.…

If you plan to donate to charity this year, make sure the recipient can make the most of your generosity. The simplest way to give your charity donation a boost is to add Gift Aid. When you donate, you tick the box to add Gift Aid and the charity can claim tax relief on what you give. This means they can claim back from HMRC the basic rate of income tax that you paid on the money you donated. So, if you give £10 the charity gets £12.50. But in order to add Gift Aid to your donation you must have paid income tax on the money. If you earned less than the Personal Allowance – £12,570 – and don’t therefore pay income tax – you can’t claim Gift Aid.…

If organising your personal finances is on your list of New Year’s resolutions for 2024, tidying up your pension savings is a crucial part of the job. Too many people have multiple pension plans, many of which are underperforming and expensive; they will be worse off in retirement as a result. Consolidating as many of your pensions as possible into a single account that offers good value and the potential for superior investment performance makes sense. It’s not always right to transfer pensions – final-salary schemes offer guaranteed benefits most people won’t want to give up, while certain plans come with extra valuable perks – so you may need to take professional advice. But the principle of consolidation is sound. In which case, you almost certainly need a self-invested personal…

Something exciting is happening across the corporate landscape in the UK and, to a certain extent, around the world. As interest rates have surged from all-time lows over the past two years, there has been a substantial shift in pension liabilities, with pension schemes, notably defined-benefit plans, seeing a substantial fall in liabilities thanks to higher discount rates. Discount rates are linked to prevailing interest rates, and are used to calculate whether or not a company has enough assets in its pension scheme to meet long-term liabilities. In the years of ultra-low interest rates, ultra-low discount rates increased projected liabilities, forcing companies to work with scheme trustees on plans to increase contributions and improve overall funding. Reduced liabilities As interest rates have risen, discount rates have moved higher, reducing projected…

During the summer, I made a trip to the Edinburgh Festival Fringe, and a standout show that I enjoyed immensely was by MoneyWeek’s regular contributor Dominic Frisby. His talk on the history (and future) of gold, which was delivered in Panmure House, the former residence of Adam Smith, was full of surprising facts and details, all of which were delivered with Frisby’s trademark wit and humour. Dominic will be reprising his hour-long show at London’s Museum of Comedy, near the British Museum, on 14 and 15 February at 7pm (tickets from museumofcomedy.com). Another standout performance at the Fringe was from our former editor, and now regular columnist, Merryn Somerset Webb. She is the host (along with another of our former editors, John Stepek) of the hit investing podcast Merryn Talks…

“The pivot is finally here,” says Russ Mould of AJ Bell. Traders have been betting for weeks that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next year, which typically boosts stock prices. Now Fed chair Jerome Powell has confirmed their hunch, saying that the US central bank has started to discuss easing monetary policy. The news sent the Dow Jones stock index to a fresh record high, while the S&P 500 benchmark has notched up seven successive weeks of gains for its best streak since 2017. Traders had spent much of this year bracing for interest rates to remain “higher for longer” as part of the battle with inflation, say Harriet Clarfelt and Kate Duguid in the Financial Times. Now they’re not so sure. The Fed is signalling…

“In Britain… 95% of our trade takes place by sea… The world’s shipping runs through a set of choke points… Topping the list… is Bab-el-Mandeb [in the Red Sea]… Since October 7, Iranian backed Houthis… [in Yemen] have launched a series of attacks… Some shipping companies are already routing ships the long way around, via the Cape of Good Hope… look a little further away, to the opening of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption flows through this stretch of water… only a few months ago, Iranian behaviour there was becoming so provocative… the US considered deploying… marines on transiting vessels… Some 40% of all world trade passes through [the Strait of Malacca]… between Sumatra and Malaysia… war with…

Shares in wealth manager St. James’s Place (SJP) fell sharply on the news that it is contemplating raising as much as £1bn from outside investors, says Patrick Hosking in The Times. The group will use the money “to back the independent businesses of the self-employed financial advisers who sell its products”. The company has operated a business model that relies on affiliated advisors, who typically sell their client book to other people in the SJP network when they retire, with SJP providing the financing. However, SJP is mulling whether it needs to “bring in more outside finance and step up equity investment in firms”. Part of SJP’s problems stem from the rises in interest rates over the past two years, says Jessica Clark in the Daily Mail. Previously, SJP loaned…

Automation, digitalisation and the drive towards net zero are three huge structural growth markets, says WirtschaftsWoche, and France’s Schneider Electric profits from each of them. It specialises in digital automation and energy management, developing systems and software applicable to buildings, infrastructure and industry. It works with steel giant ArcelorMittal to produce low-carbon steel, helps French utility Suez manage water more efficiently and provides industrial automation facilities for AI-chipmaker Hailo Technologies. India should prove especially lucrative, as the group expects the extent of electrification there to rise sixfold in the next 25 years.…

Energy giant BP is the latest company to stop sending tankers through the Red Sea, raising fears of a major disruption to world trade, says Stanley Reed in The New York Times. Major shipping firms including MSC, Maersk, Evergreen and Hapag-Lloyd have also said they will avoid the area after it came under attack from Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. The Red Sea provides access to the Suez canal from the Persian Gulf, and the volume of oil being carried through the canal is already down by two-thirds this month. Global supply chains are also under threat, says Jonathan Yerushalmy in The Guardian. About 12% of global trade passes through the Red Sea, including 30% of global container traffic, which means delays in the area could lead to “significant disruptions…

Because many consumer brands have been around for 100 years or more, it is easy to assume that they are immortal, churning out cash for their owners through thick and thin. But this is not the case. We are all prone to survivorship bias: the human tendency to forget what has disappeared from view. Brands that are eclipsed by something better, or disappear due to regulation or people’s changing preferences, may linger as a nostalgic memory, but their phenomenal success is forgotten. How do you define a brand? A popular definition is a product, service or concept that is distinguished from competitors in the minds of consumers by its name, qualities and reputation. This implies that it can command a premium price. Many businesses, such as shops, airlines and cars,…

“Wall Street’s best-known bear is going into hibernation,” says The Wall Street Journal. Jim Chanos, the veteran short-seller, is shutting down his hedge funds after almost 40 years and will return investors’ cash by the end of this year. Chanos’s long career spans both a successful bet against the energy trader Enron, which collapsed in 2001 amid vast fraud, and a multi-year, money-losing campaign against carmaker Tesla. In recent years he has struggled amid a record-breaking bull market: his funds were down 4% between the start of the year and mid-November, against a total return of 19% for the S&P 500. Assets under management have gone from $6bn in 2008 to $200m today. “The marketplace for what I do has changed,” he tells The Wall Street Journal. “The long/short equity…

Investment trust discounts have blown out this year. Trusts are trading at an average discount of around 11% to their underlying net asset value (NAV) at the time of writing, according to the Association of Investment Companies. At times, they have been as wide as 17% – more than twice their long-term average. However, these figures are just averages. Some trusts are trading at discounts as wide as 60%, while others are trading at premium. 3i (LSE: III), the UK’s largest investment trust with total assets of £19bn, is trading at a premium to NAV of 23%. Ever the value-hunter, I’ve been paying close attention to the ones on large discounts. The allure of buying £1 of assets for 90p is too great to ignore. But no investor should buy…

Our capital continues to thrive EditorialThe Economist Politicians should try to replicate London’s success in northern cities, says The Economist. The capital has proved resilient to the economic shocks of Brexit and the Covid pandemic when compared with other parts of the UK, and robust enough to weather political pushback against globalisation, immigration and the “fetishisation of manufacturing”. London’s strengths in services helped it avoid the worst repercussions from Brexit, with the city’s exports from services growing by 47% between 2016 and 2021. High-value services, such as law, coding, consulting and higher education proved to be a better source of growth, jobs and innovation. Hybrid working, which has grown in prominence, suits big cities as offices are still needed for gatherings and London’s strong entertainment sector draws people in even…

noahpinion.blog “A trade war is brewing between Europe and China,” says Noah Smith. There are lots of reasons for the tensions, but one particularly “sore point” is electric vehicles (EVs). Over the past two years China has gone from being an “also-ran” to the world’s biggest car exporter and is flooding Europe with cheap electric cars, threatening the continent with “deindustrialisation” and the loss of jobs. There’s no mystery about why this is happening – China massively subsidises the production of the cars; Europe massively subsidises their consumption. China controls nearly the entire supply chain for EV batteries, and an EV is basically a battery with wheels. China’s economic woes have left its carmakers stuck with inventory they can’t sell, so they’re slashing prices and dumping it on Europe. But…

Take a closer look at the coins in your pocket: you may have been sitting on some rare gems. The Royal Mint has revealed the rarest circulating coins featuring the late Queen. “The coinage of Queen Elizabeth II spanned 70 years and special designs issued into circulation celebrated some of the biggest events in history,” says Mark Loveridge, director of UK currency at The Royal Mint. If you have any 10p coins, look for ones with a letter on them. In 2019 a special set of A-Z ten-pence coins were issued. But unequal amounts of each letter were minted. The lowest mintage was 63,000 for letters Y, W and Z, while 64,000 R coins were made. The rest of the alphabet got 84,000 coins each. The rarity of R, W,…

The number of savers using equity-release plans to boost their retirement income has fallen sharply over the past year, with higher interest rates hitting demand. Industry data suggests that savers will unlock around £3bn of cash tied up in their homes over 2023 as a whole, roughly half the amount accessed last year. Equity-release plans have become increasingly popular in recent years, with many older people benefiting from rising property prices, but struggling with limited income in retirement. Equity release enables such people to borrow money against the value of their home, using the cash to boost their income; no repayments have to be made until after their deaths. The schemes can work well, and the equity-release industry has become increasingly competitive in recent years, with more providers entering the…

The UK now has positive real interest rates for the first time since before the 2008 financial crisis. We believe this shift is an important signal that the Bank, barring an external inflation shock, is close to the end of its interest-rate hiking cycle. Two years of rate rises have hit the share prices of firms highly sensitive to increases in the cost of capital, such as property and infrastructure companies. Some are now trading at significant discounts to their net asset values (NAVs), cash flows have remained robust, and we are seeing infrastructure-asset transactions between institutional investors at significantly higher valuation multiples than implied in listed infrastructure-company share prices. In addition to these attractive valuations, companies have high-quality predictable earnings streams from the long-dated contracted revenue they generate from…

2020 Roebuck Estate, Reserve, England £38.99, reduced to £26.99 in Mix Six until 25 December, majestic.co.uk In a funny sort of way, this is the most “pressured” column of the year. It is published in the glorious double issue, it hits the shelves just before Christmas and it takes us into the New Year. It is, by definition, the most important spot for my chosen celebratory sparkler – the wine that has most impressed me this year, but which is also eminently affordable, so you can stock up for any parties you might be attending or hosting this festive season. This incredibly hard-fought contest was, in the end, a one-horse race. I found 2020 Roebuck earlier than most when I was shown a preview bottle a couple of months ago.…