In recent essays, I expressed the view that consumer food inflation had the potential to moderate during the second half of the year. I believe the elements that will underpin this softening are grain-related products, vegetable oils, meat and fruit. But within the grains category, South Africa is exposed to imports, particularly of wheat and rice. Global grain prices have declined over the past few months with the exception of rice, which has surged in price. However, this does not change our view on domestic food inflation, and this article explains why.
In April 2022, rice from various origins, such as Thailand, Vietnam, India and Pakistan, traded below US$400/t (about R740/t). This month, rice from all these producers except India traded at over US$470/t (about R870/t). This is notable, considering…
