Indholdsfortegnelse for January 25, 2021 i India Today

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently promised to present a ‘never before’ Union budget. While we have to wait until February 1 to find out if she indeed does so, we know that the circumstances this budget is arriving in are truly never-before and not seen in the past four decades. There have been only four instances when budgets have been presented in times of negative growth—1958-59, 1966-67, 1973-74 and 1980-81. When the finance minister presented her previous budget on February 1, 2020, India’s economy had already been decelerating, growing at just 4.1 per cent. This year, the double whammy of Covid-19 and the nationwide lockdown means the economy is projected to contract by 7.7 per cent. The Union budget, which lists the government’s spending priorities in the financial year, will…

Union railway minister Piyush Goyal finds honourable mention in Pranab Mukherjee’s recently released memoirs, The Presidential Years—2012-2017. In the book, the late president recounts how Goyal was one of the few BJP leaders to have accurately predicted his party’s tally in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Goyal had apparently met Mukherjee and predicted ‘nothing less than 265 seats, going up to 280’—the BJP eventually got 282. Mukherjee took him seriously when Goyal shared details of Narendra Modi’s campaign schedule, criss-crossing the country.…

Round 1, Oct. 14: 31 farmers’ organisations from Punjab walk out of a meeting with agriculture secy Sanjay Aggarwal, saying they’ll talk only to political leadership Round 2, Nov. 13: Agriculture minister Narendra Tomar gives presentation on farm laws, farmers share their apprehensions. Farmers agree to end protests on railway tracks in Punjab Round 3, Dec. 1: Union ministers Tomar, Piyush Goyal and Som Prakash propose a five-member committee to look into objections. BKU splinter group led by Rakesh Tikal, AIKS and CPI(M) leader Hannan Mollah, Shiva Kumar from MP and Yogendra Yadav demand an equal footing in consultations. Farmers’ bodies list demands, want complete rollback of five laws, newly-enacted ordinance on Air Quality Management in Delhi-NCR and the Electricity Bill 2020 Round 4, Dec. 5: Tomar makes presentation on…

Does the uptick in sales in the past two months signal a revival of demand? As ‘Mission Unlock’ was rolled out, economic activity gradually resumed. Structural interventions, such as the Maharashtra government reducing stamp duty, the lowering of interest rates by banks and the flexible payment schemes offered by developers were triggers for the increased sales. The renewed consumer confidence as a result of favourable market conditions and the increased significance of owning a home with regards to safety and stability will fuel demand in 2021. Finally, the reduction in premiums across the board for ongoing and new projects under the DCPR 2020 (Development Control and Promotion Regulations) till December 31, 2021, will foster growth. What measures do you hope to see in the budget for the real estate sector?…

Sector size N/A Contribution to GDP N/A Employment 500 million man-days in roadworks in the past 4 years KEY ISSUES ➜ New projects plunged to a 16-year low in the quarter ended June 2020, as per CMIE data ➜ There is no clarity on how the government will fund the huge existing pipeline of infrastructure projects ➜ Many projects are mired in red tape and are suffering delays as a result of problems in land acquisition SILVER LINING ➜ The Centre launched the National Infrastructure Pipeline in its last budget. This envisaged the completion of 7,300 infra projects at a total cost of Rs 111 lakh crore from 2020-25 ➜ The government is looking to set up a development finance institution to fund these infrastructure projects…

❶ The government has implemented an emergency credit line for the sector totalling Rs 3 lakh crore. The available credit is 20 per cent of credit outstanding as of Feb 29, 2020 ➋ A similar measure is Rs 20,000 crore of subordinate debt for MSMEs. Under this scheme, promoters are issued debt by banks, which is then infused into the firm as promoter equity ➌ The government has also set up a Rs 50,000 crore ‘fund of funds’ for additional equity infusion ❹ To promote domestic procurement, global tenders are disallowed for procurements valued up to Rs 200 crore ➎ The government has implemented a new classification system for MSMEs to encourage growth…

How urgent is the need to recapitalise public sector banks? The RBI’s latest financial stability report has brought out the need to build up capital buffers in the banking sector. Public sector banks will find it difficult to raise capital from the market. Inevitably, the government will have to make provisions in the budget to provide capital. In the previous budget, there was talk of setting up development finance institutions. Will these materialise this time around? Infrastructure financing needs a major push and neither the central nor the state governments can fund the National Infrastructure Pipeline. Public sector banks cannot do it either. A well-structured and well-capitalised development finance institution is required to lead infrastructure financing in India. Will the budget open up avenues for the setting up of a…

Q. What are the three key measures you would like to see in the Union budget that will drive growth, given that the economy is in recession? A. ADITI NAYAR: Prioritisation of capital expenditure, especially projects already identified in the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), and where the plans are at an advanced stage, will help to create a multiplier effect and boost the tentative economic revival. Secondly, an adequate budgetary provision for the vaccine rollout will immeasurably boost confidence of the economic agents and aid in decision-making regarding both consumption and investment. Additionally, clearance of subsidy arrears, pending dues to contractors and vendors, and expediting tax refunds will help boost liquidity as well as sentiment in the economy. D.K. SRIVASTAVA: First, the government should focus on augmenting non-defence capital expenditure.…

1 percentage point difference in vote share between AIADMK (40.9%) and DMK (39.9%) in the 2016 assembly poll THE SUN SHINES BRIGHTER Results of the 2019 Lok Sabha poll and the assembly byelections suggest that the DMK and its ‘Rising Sun’ symbol have an electoral edge. The DMK-led United Progressive Alliance won 38 of the 39 LS seats In the assembly byelections, the DMK won 13 seats to the AIADMK’s nine while the breakaway Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) led by T.T.V. Dhinakaran, nephew of V.K. Sasikala, wrested the R.K. Nagar constituency seat in Chennai vacated by Jayalalithaa’s passing. However, the two parties were neck and neck in the civic body elections held last December with the AIADMK inching ahead The DMK’s advantage in assembly bypolls is striking as the…

Heavy Fighter MTOW in excess of 30 tonnes NOW: Su-30 MKI FUTURE: Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) Light Fighter MTOW between 10 and 15 tonnes, usually single-engined and can be built in large numbers NOW: MiG-21 FUTURE: LCA Mark-1A Medium Fighter MTOW between 15 and 25 tonnes NOW: Mirage 2000 FUTURE: Rafale, Medium Weight Fighter…

Q Tribhanga: Tedhi Medhi Crazy is an inter-generational family drama with assertive women at the helm. You know what it’s like to grow up in the presence of such women. Tell us about it. When people ask me who you idolise, I say it’s my great grandmother (Rattan Bai), grandmother (Shobhana Samarth) and mother (Tanuja). It was amazing growing up amid such strong, innately secure ladies. Way back, they were following the crux of feminism—to have the choice to be able to do whatever we want. I talk about them to my kids so that they understand their legacy. Q The film looks at how a woman is judged for having ambition, especially if it goes beyond the realm of family… It is more about who is a “good woman”.…

The 2016 launch of Startup India by Prime Minister Narendra Modi captured the imagination of the younger generation and unleashed a wave of startups. There are now more than 30 unicorns (privately-held start-ups valued at over $1 billion) in India, which will inspire the next 30,000 entrepreneurs to tackle coming challenges. Faith is also gaining ground that technology and entrepreneurship can solve the big problems of the country. The shift in mindset towards innovation augurs well for India. While India has done well considering where it began, it is still punching far below its weight globally. Consider this: Israel, a country of 8 million people, has seen 250 of its companies go public in the US and thousands of its start-ups have been acquired by big US companies. Most of…

COVISHIELD Researched by: AstraZeneca and Oxford University Manufactured by: Serum Institute of India Type: Chimpanzee adenovirus vector-based vaccine Efficacy*: 70% (based on phase 3 trial results) Status in India: Approved for emergency use. Around 5.6 million vials shipped to 13 cities on Jan. 12 Expert take: “Live vaccines need to be stored at 2 to 8 degrees Celsius. This vaccine requires an efficient cold chain to avoid contamination. It has been tested on only 1,600 people in India, which is good to judge safety and immunogenicity* but is a small sample size for robust efficacy data.” —Dr Gagandeep Kang Vaccine expert, Christian Medical College, Vellore COVAXIN Researched by: Bharat Biotech with NIV, Pune and ICMR Manufactured by: Bharat Biotech Type: Inactivated vaccine Efficacy: Not known Status in India: Approved for…

WHEN FINANCE MINISTER NIRMALA SITHARAMAN presents Budget 2021 on February 1, the circumstances that she will do so in will be, without doubt, exceptional. The Covid-19 lockdown last year was an economic earthquake of sorts, comparable to the global financial crisis sparked off by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. D.K. Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, says, “No other budget compares as closely to the upcoming one as the one that followed the Lehman Brothers crisis.” Thanks to the fiscal stimuli rolled out in 2008-09, India emerged rather unscathed from that crisis, though the splurge seeded other problems, including a spate of corporate bankruptcies and mounting bad loans in the following years. Sitharaman’s 2021 budget comes against the background of a recession, with growth in two consecutive quarters…

Sector size ₹ 8.7 LAKH CRORE Contribution to GDP 4.2 PER CENT Employment generated 19.1 MILLION KEY ISSUES ➜ The sector was struggling even before the lockdown. It saw 18 per cent degrowth in 2019 because of a slowing economy and high prices following new regulations ➜ April 2020 saw zero vehicle sales across India ➜ Car sales in this fiscal year are expected to be 25 per cent below those in 2018-19 SILVER LINING ➜ The 2020 festive season (Oct-Dec) came as a relief. Most manufacturers posted higher wholesale growth in December on a year-on-year basis—Maruti Suzuki’s passenger vehicle sales grew 14.6 per cent and Hyundai’s, 25 per cent…

Where do infrastructure projects stand in terms of the government’s focus and implementation? The Centre has broadened its focus from heavy construction projects like highways. In the past three years, there has also been major spending on 24x7 electricity and water connections for households. The other real push has been in railways, such as metro rails for cities, the Dedicated Freight Corridor, the bullet train and so on. Are you satisfied with the progress of the NIP (National Infrastructure Pipeline)? The allocation for infrastructure in the last budget was Rs 4.12 lakh crore, but in the first six months, capital expenditure fell by 27 per cent. Though it picked up significantly in the Oct-Nov period, I suspect that by March 31, we will fall short of the spending target. This…

How severe are the production issues in the MSME sector? Many factories have closed because of the lockdown. There has been a steep decline in production and sales because of issues like transport not functioning and payments being stuck. We are miles from normalcy; we expect 2021-22 to be a period of muted growth for MSMEs. The sector is still far from normal levels of production, and requires special flexibilities. What sort of flexibilities? We propose flexibility be given to banks for loan sanctioning. The Basel norms (supervisory standards in the banking sector) were finalised during years of robust growth. They are now a handicap. The government and the RBI should consider suspending these for a few years. One problem is the way NPAs are identified—it is completely automated. If…

Sector size ₹ 32.5 LAKH CRORE Contribution to GDP 16 PER CENT Employment generated MILLION 120 KEY ISSUES ➜ Despite efforts by successive governments, manufacturing’s share of GDP has been stuck at 16 per cent for some years now ➜ Covid-19 brought most manufacturing to a halt. While the Oct-Dec period saw a spurt in activity from pent-up and festive demand, it may not be sustainable SILVER LINING ➜ Under the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, a slew of programmes have been announced to boost production, such as the production-linked incentive scheme ➜ The Reserve Bank of India’s six-month moratorium on loan repayments gave the sector a breather, as revenues had dried up…

Going by Instagram, the Maldives seemingly had Bollywood to thank for keeping its tourism afloat in a pandemic-wracked 2020. After being holed up in their houses for months, many film celebrities made a beeline for this nation of 130 island resorts. Actor Mouni Roy, who visited Soneva Fushi for a photo shoot in September, helped start the trend. Known for its luxurious villas and a technology-free zone called The Den, Soneva Fushi also saw Mandira Bedi check in around the same time. “I travelled 15 hours to get here! but oh my... how it was worth it,” said Bedi on Instagram. Many emojis followed. T he remoteness of Maldivian resorts guarantees privacy and isolation, especially valued in these times of Covid,19 The question is obvious—why Maldives, though? Actor Hina Khan,…

The violent assault on the iconic American Capitol building by a marauding pro-Trump mob extinguished whatever little glow was left of the shining City on the Hill. The vulgar images of the ugly desecration of the citadel of American democracy will remain seared in the memories of both Americans and people across the world. A future historian may well mark this as an inflection point in America’s decline as a great power on the geopolitical stage. This is bad news for those who still rely on the US to enable a credible coalition to restrain a China which believes its own moment in the sun has arrived; that it is the new shining City on the Hill in the 21st century. With America’s geopolitical clout in doubt, India will now…

Sector size ₹ 8.8 LAKH CRORE Contribution to GDP 4.3 PER CENT Employment generated 52 MILLION KEY ISSUES ➜ In 2020, housing sales in seven major metros (Delhi, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai and Kolkata) fell 47 per cent year-on-year to 138,000 units ➜ This year, the supply of new housing is likely to fall 46 per cent, to 128,000 units, in the same metros SILVER LINING ➜ Sales rose in Q3 & Q4 2020 following discounts by developers and falling interest rates on home loans. Mumbai and Bengaluru saw the highest sales KEY SUPPORT MEASURES ❶ Covid-19 related disruptions will be considered ‘force majeure’ under RERA. Registration and project completion timelines have been extended by six and nine months, respectively ➋ The credit-linked subsidy scheme for middle-income families (with…

How would you rate the auto industry’s performance in the recent past? The industry has been going through a rough patch, with a declining growth rate. From 2005 to 2010, the industry grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 12.9 per cent. From 2010 to 2015, the growth rate fell to 5.9 per cent. Over the following five years, growth was as low as 1.3 per cent. 2019-20 was a bad year—prices rose because of regulatory changes, affecting demand, and there are more such changes in the offing. It is only by 2021-22 that we may catch up with the growth we saw in 2018-19. Our approach to private entrepreneurship needs to change. What are your expectations from the budget? As far as Maruti is concerned, we don’t have…

Sector size 63.4 MILLION UNITS Contribution to GDP 29 PER CENT Employment generated 110 MILLION KEY ISSUES ➜ Access to finance is a problem. While the moratorium on interest payments helped, many MSMEs still struggle to make payments ➜ The new rules for reporting NPAs—under which a payment delayed for 30 days leads to a loan account being classified as ‘special mention’—could cause many loans to MSMEs seeing increased scrutiny SILVER LINING ➜ To support the sector, the government has made an effort to increase purchases from MSMEs; between January and October 2020, there was a 25 per cent increase in public procurement from such firms…

Total assets ₹ 182 LAKH CRORE Contribution to GDP N/A Employment generated 1.4 MILLION KEY ISSUES ➜ The complications of the Covid-19 lockdown—like the moratorium on interest payments and the emergency credit line guarantee scheme—will add to existing troubles ➜ The RBI’s financial stability report says that gross non-performing assets are expected to rise to 13.5 per cent of advances by Sep 2021, up from 7.5 per cent in the same month in the previous year ➜ There is an urgent need for recapitalisation of public sector banks, despite capital infusions totalling Rs 3.16 lakh crore being done from 2016-2020 ➜ Misgovernance and fraud are persistent problems; in 2019-20, Indian banks lost Rs 1.85 lakh crore to fraud SILVER LINING ➜ The government has approved the merger of 10 public…

Is manufacturing seeing a recovery? What more needs to be done? Manufacturing depends on the overall health of the economy—we need to focus on that rather than on just manufacturing. In the second quarter, we saw a significant recovery, including in FMCG, pharma and chemicals. In Q3, the recovery was wider, including in engineering and automotives. However, salaries have fallen drastically—that can become a problem as 60 per cent of our growth in the past 30 years has come from consumption. What are your expectations from the budget? The Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and the production-linked incentives scheme are aimed at increasing the depth in manufacturing. We don’t need more than that, but there should be something to supplement it. We also need long-term clarity about policies. When will the tariff…

THE DMK’S ADVANTAGE IS THE ANTI-INCUMBENCY THE AIADMK FACES AFTER 10 YEARS IN POWER AND THE FACT THAT IN STALIN THEY HAVE A LEADER TO FOCUS ON AT THE TOP OR MUTHUVEL KARUNANIDHI STALIN, who turns 68 on March 1, this will be the ultimate challenge of his career. If he and his party, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), fail to dislodge the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in the Tamil Nadu election this time too—the latter has been in office for a decade—Stalin’s hopes of occupying the coveted chief minister’s seat in Fort St George (the seat of the state administration) may be lost forever. For the DMK, the sweeping victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha election (the party-led alliance won 38 of the 39 seats) came…

When Taapsee Pannu wasn’t shooting the viral “Biggini Shoot” video with her sisters and boyfriend, Danish shuttler Mathias Boe, she had a floating breakfast, one of the key experiences offered by many resorts BUNNY HOP For some reason, feeding rabbits is on the menu at Soneva Fushi. Both Varun Dhawan and Katrina Kaif ensured that the bunny got a slice of carrot IN A FISH BOWL Celebrities avoid shots of private spaces but if your suite is underwater, then a photo is a must. Kajal Aggarwal and husband Gautam Kitchlu showed off the aquarium-like view afforded by The Muraka DEEP DIVE Sonakshi Sinha became a licensed scuba diver with Oceanic World Maldives, a dive and water sports centre at Grand Park Kodhipparu SPOT THE FIN Ananya Panday made time for…

FICTION NON-FICTION The year 2020, everyone agrees, was a lousy one. Except, global lockdowns served, in very small part, as a reminder that reading is a means of escape, that the combination of a writer and your imagination can transport you to any place in any time and, unlike with film and television, there are no directors to superimpose their interpretations and their images over your own. This is not to say that publishers made out like bandits. One report, for instance, estimates that the global book-publishing industry declined by $7 billion (Rs 51.4 thousand crore) from 2019 and that it will take until 2023 for the market to return to roughly the position it was in four years ago. But book sales were resilient—as digital alternatives multiply—even though Covid…