Indholdsfortegnelse for 1234 i MoneyWeek

When he was a fund manager, MoneyWeek’s columnist Max King went to countless meetings with companies’ executives and read thousands of reports. But they often don’t tell you as much as simple everyday observation, he says. Years ago, he was on holiday on the continent with his wife, who noted that more and more people in cafes seemed to be drinking an orange concoction called Aperol. He looked into it, and duly bought some shares in the drink’s maker, Campari. The drink caught on globally and the shares soared. Similarly, we have been inundated with reports on Europe’s ongoing growth malaise. GDP per capita in many major economies has flatlined for two decades now, explaining why Europe’s share of global GDP has dwindled from 31% to 16% since 1980. But…

“[Hedge fund manager] Ray Dalio was predicting a repeat of the 1937 Great Depression echo crash for years… He said the super-cycle was coming to an end in 2015. Nope… Value investor Seth Klarman [said] in 2010: ‘By holding interest rates at zero, the government is basically tricking the population into going long on just about every kind of security… at the price of almost certainly not getting an adequate return’… The S&P 500 is up more than 530% since these warnings… These guys are all billionaires… You have to watch what they do, not what they say. Are hedge fund managers… excellent traders, investors and risk managers? Yes… Are they accurate with their macro predictions? Occasionally they get lucky, but they’re wrong far more often than they’re right… Never…

AstraZeneca’s third-quarter results eclipsed analysts’ forecasts, boosted by cancer and diabetes medicines, says Helena Smolak in The Wall Street Journal. However, both the good news and the announcement of another $2bn of investment have been overshadowed by the fact that Astra’s Chinese operations are in the “spotlight”. This has wiped 12% off the share price since October. No wonder, says Lex in the Financial Times. Investors “have little tolerance for legal risk of any kind”. AstraZeneca’s Chinese operations face three problems. Firstly, there is a long-standing medical-insurance fraud investigation, involving claims that salespeople doctored test results. More seriously, Astra recently confirmed that several executives are under investigation for the alleged illegal importation of certain cancer drugs. If that wasn’t enough, its “high-profile” China president, Leon Wang, has been detained by…

A flourishing tourist sector and moderate inflation should bolster Spain’s real GDP by 3% in 2024, says WirtschaftsWoche. That’s good news for Valencia’s CaixaBank. It is heading for a record profit of €5.6bn this year, a reflection of the fact that it keeps its business simple and makes 70% of its money from interest income, so today’s relatively high rates are a boon. It takes deposits and offers savings accounts, loans and insurance; it does not dabble in securities. A continual focus on lowering expenses has helped reduce its cost-income ratio to under 40%. CaixaBank is also well capitalised. The simple nature of the business and 8% dividend yield make the stock a star of the sector.…

Both the upper and lower houses of Japan’s Diet voted to keep Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister this week, despite his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its majority in the lower house in the snap general election last month, says Akane Okutsu in Nikkei Asia. Ishiba (pictured) will now lead Japan’s first minority government in 30 years. The LDP and its coalition party Komeito failed to win enough seats on 27 October to secure a majority, and opposition parties were unable to forge one either. Another factor that will contribute to “bumpy parliament proceedings” is the appointment of the opposition party’s Jun Azumi to the “all-important post” of budget committee chair, says Himari Semans in The Japan Times. With the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) in control of the lower house’s…

Markets expect inflation to pick up under Donald Trump (see page 4), so many investors will be thinking about how to hedge against that risk. Inflation-linked government bonds (see below) might look like the answer – yet it’s by no means certain that they would give the right result. While linkers are useful – we use them in our exchange-traded fund (ETF) portfolio – they only guarantee an inflation-beating return in one scenario. The key to understanding why is that the real yield from inflation-linked bonds varies over time. The chart above shows the real yield on US ten-year Treasury inflation protected securities (Tips) since 2003, as set by market prices for these bonds. This has varied from over 3% to under-1% (yes, if you buy at -1% you are…

Why firms are slow to adopt AI Editorial The Economist The “early adopters” of generative artificial intelligence (AI) are individuals, not businesses, says The Economist. For example, 39% of Americans say they use ChatGPT, while the number for businesses, according to the US Census Bureau, is just 5%. As a result, revenue from selling AI services to companies remains limited. Why the hesitancy? CEOs are scared of being left behind if they adopt it too slowly, but also worry about being embarrassed if they move too fast and damage their firm’s reputation. Legal and regulatory risks “loom large”, particularly relating to “privacy, bias and copyright violations”. Heavily regulated sectors, such as finance and healthcare, are particularly “wary”. Then there’s the “uncertainty” of the payoff. Full-scale implementation may raise revenue and…

russell-clark.com The reality of America’s unique global influence (see above) is that it has long pursued a “growth through trade” policy, “in the hope that this would export democracy to the rest of the world”, says Russell Clark. It is no coincidence that Trump and the Republican party have changed position at a time when growth through trade looked to be strengthening rivals. Hence the return of “America First”, which moves US political practice closer to US business practice – that is, that “rules are not so important, leverage and power are”. If you want to have an independent policy from the US, then you have to have an independent military and supply chain. Only the US, Russia, China and possibly India have this, and hence are the “only nations…

At the £3.6bn Polar Capital Technology Trust’s (LSE: PCT) annual general meeting in September, manager Ben Rogoff said that “It doesn’t feel like AI is in a bubble to us – AI is a theme that should dominate every portfolio”. Many historic innovations greatly increased productivity, says Rogoff: horsepower by 50 times, the tractor by four times and the sewing machine by 22 times. AI has the potential to do the same: already, companies are reporting significant efficiency gains. Some 60% of workers today are employed in occupations that did not exist in 1940, he notes. “We cannot know what new opportunities are enabled by AI.” Industry sources predict that the current $45bn market for AI chips will grow to $400bn by 2027, says his colleague Alastair Unwin. Yet a…

American small caps (firms with market capitalisations of up to $2bn, although some would include companies worth as much as $10bn) have traditionally been seen as the best place for investors seeking high long-term returns. They have outperformed large caps since 2000, says Jan Willem Berghuis of Van Lanschot Kempen. Over the past 15 years, however, the small fry have fallen from favour and are “struggling” to match the performance of their larger counterparts, says Freddy Colquhoun of JM Finn. The good news is that economic headwinds are abating and the end of uncertainty over the election is already providing a short-term boost. And as the frenzy around large-cap tech stocks cools, the depth and breadth of the US small-cap market will make it look particularly attractive in the longer…

If you have a landline telephone in your home, you are in the minority. Only 47% of homes still do so, according to Ofcom. Many people exclusively use smartphones and video calls to keep in touch. So far, that shift has been driven by choice. But there are only two years until nobody will have a landline in the traditional sense in which they have existed since 1877. The analogue network that works over copper wires – the public switched telephone network (PSTN) – will be switched off on 31 January 2027. By then, all landline services must be changed to “digital voice” – a technology called voice over internet protocol (VoIP) that uses an internet connection to make and receive voice calls. If you have an existing landline, there’s…

Two weeks after the Budget, the row over Rachel Reeves’ “jobs tax” continues to rage, with the hospitality sector particularly concerned about the impact of increased national insurance (NI) contributions for employers. However, it is crucial that every business crunches the numbers for itself. Many will find they are not affected by the chancellor’s announcement. The headline change is that from 1 April 2025, the rate of employers’ NI is increasing from 13.8% to 15.0%; at the same time, the threshold for salaries at which this NI becomes payable is falling from £9,100 today to £5,000. At first sight, that’s a double whammy that will really hurt. If you pay an employee, say, £30,000, your employers’ NI contribution is £2,884 for the current tax year. From next April, the bill…

In 2022, copper was the world’s hottest commodity. The price had surged from $6,000 per tonne in 2019 to $11,000 by mid-2021. Analysts were predicting further growth as the green transition turbocharged demand. Gary Nagle, the head of Glencore (LSE: GLEN), one of the world’s largest commodity companies, told the Financial Times that the copper supply would need to rise by an extra million tonnes a year by 2050 to meet green-energy targets. That demand, he predicted, would drive prices to $15,000. However, far from spiking, prices have consolidated. The price dropped to a post-Covid low of $7,000 a tonne in mid-2022 before rising to nearly $11,000 a tonne early this year. It has since dropped back to the mid-$9,000 level. Still, the demand for copper hasn’t gone away. Australian…

The last fortnight has been good for my long tips, with five rising and three falling. Rolls-Royce revved up from 558p to 569p, cruise-ship operator Royal Caribbean sailed along from $203 to $234 and foreign-exchange broker Alpha rose from 2,100p to 2,300p. United Airlines climbed from $76.09 to $89.43 and food supplier Hilton Food turned up the heat from 918p to 945p. On the downside, both of my UK retail tips weakened. Next dipped from 10,110p to 9,860p, while Marks & Spencer dropped from 382p to 369p. Lastly, property developer Harworth fell from 187p to 170p. Overall, my long tips are making profits of £5,377, up from £4,599 a fortnight ago. Unfortunately, my shorts tips didn’t put in such a good performance. Air-taxi firm Joby Aviation rose from $5.27 to…

Two weeks before the US presidential election, Donald Trump sat down with podcaster Joe Rogan (pictured) for a three-hour chat, says Isabella Simonetti in The Wall Street Journal. It drew more than 45 million views on YouTube and more than 25 million listeners across Spotify and other platforms. On election night, Rogan was among several podcast hosts thanked by Trump in his victory celebration. The Democrat campaign “played impeccably by the old rules”, says James Marriott in The Times. Kamala Harris declined an invitation to appear on Rogan’s show and did TV adverts instead. Trump, meanwhile, was on a “much-mocked tour of young male anti-woke podcasters”, with audiences in the tens or hundreds of millions. Fox News, by contrast, has about two million prime-time viewers. The three main cable channels’…

Mille, Frantoi Cutrera, Extra Virgin Olive Oil, Sicily, Italy, available as part of the Good Health Selection Box €134 for 3 x 50cl bottles, to be shipped in early December with express courier from Italy to arrive in the UK in time for Christmas. Visit frantoi.org There are many similarities between top-flight wine and elite extra virgin olive oil. Following a fine wine career in the UK trade, an obsession with family-owned, terroir-driven, artisan olive oil production prompted Elizabeth Ferguson and her Italian husband, Kasimir, to move from London to Italy to start one of the most fascinating businesses. Frantoi curates a collection of the very finest, ultra-high-quality, new-season extra virgin olive oils from 12 Italian regions. Specialising in monocultivar (single variety) olive oils made by Italy’s finest growers and…

“There’s no place like home,” said Dorothy, clicking her ruby red heels together in the film of The Wizard of Oz, from 1939. Those slippers will now “find their way to a new home” in December, says Texas-based Heritage Auctions, following stops in Dallas, New York and London. They are believed to be the highest-quality pair of all the shoes worn by actress Judy Garland in the making of the film classic, based on L. Frank Baum’s children’s book. They are the ones used for the close-up shot of Garland uttering those famous words. But their more recent history is almost as exciting – they were stolen from the Judy Garland Museum in Grand Rapids, Minnesota, in 2005, before being recovered 13 years later by the FBI. If that seems…

Finally, election fever has broken. The sun still shines. The world still turns. Beer still goes flat. The nation has taken Donald Trump back. It will give him another try. Before the election, Rana Foroohar in the Financial Times had her own ideas about how to make America great again. All we need to do is to identify the problems and make the right choices. Just as we did in the 1890s. Both Britain and the US then passed “sweeping reforms that improved workers’ rights and labour standards, increased access to education, enfranchised new groups of voters and so on”, she wrote. This led to a period of national renewal in Victorian Britain and Progressive-era America. Despite political polarisation, that could happen again today. Oh my. Foroohar completely misunderstands what…

France’s highest civil court has annulled an award from 2022 that had required the Malaysian government to pay $14.9bn to eight heirs of the Sultan of Sulu (pictured), says Reuters. In 1878, the sultan had struck a deal to cede territory, which included islands in the southern Philippines and parts of modern-day Malaysia, to the British North Borneo Company in exchange for an annual payment of 5,300 Malaysian dollars. Independent Malaysia had continued to pay the now-token sum until 2013, when it stopped following a failed but violent bid to seize land in the name of the sultanate. The heirs denied involvement and sought arbitration in Europe. A court in Spain disallowed a hearing, so a Spanish arbitration judge took the case to France, where, in 2022, he awarded the…

Cryptocurrencies are enjoying a “Trump pump”, Matt Simpson of City Index tells The Guardian. Bitcoin prices hit a record high of more than $89,000 (£69,000) on Tuesday. Crypto investors are betting that a Republican clean sweep of the US congress spells pro-crypto regulation in the world’s biggest economy. Bitcoin has risen 94% since January and more than a third over the past month alone. Bitcoin is highly volatile, says Dwayne Oxford for Al Jazeera. As recently as March 2020 it was trading at around $5,000. It’s not the only cryptocurrency to be enjoying a boost. Dogecoin, a token backed by tycoon Elon Musk, has surged 152% since Trump’s election triumph. The entire cryptocurrency market is now estimated to be worth $2.79trn, astounding growth from about $1bn back in 2013. Trump’s…

Last week, the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) all but “paved the way” for the £16.5bn merger of Vodafone and CK Hutchison’s Three UK, a deal that would “create Britain’s largest mobile operator”, say Yasemin Craggs Mersinoglu and Suzi Ring in the Financial Times. While the CMA will announce its decision next month, it gave a strong hint that it will approve the deal, despite previous concerns that cutting the number of operators from four to three “could lead to higher bills for tens of millions of customers”. In return, those involved will have to fulfil various conditions, including “delivering on their £11bn plans to upgrade the merged company’s UK network” and “retaining certain existing mobile tariffs and data plans for three years”. The CMA’s latest intervention is technically…

France’s LightOn has launched an initial public offering (IPO) on the Euronext Growth market in Paris, becoming the first generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) start-up to list in Europe, says Reuters. The company, which provides large language model software to businesses and the French government, expects to start trading on 26 November. Shares will be issued for €10.35 per share, valuing the company at roughly €50m. LightOn expects to raise about €10.4m from the IPO. Other European companies such as Mistral in France and DeepL in Germany have stayed private to raise funds. LightOn aims to achieve revenue of €40m and a 40% core profit margin by 2027.…

A flurry of appointments by Donald Trump this week confirms the likely contours of his presidency. Elon Musk, who spent roughly $200m to get Trump elected and has “sat in on nearly every interview” (see page 39), has been appointed to lead a new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) alongside Vivek Ramaswamy, says Theodore Schleifer in The New York Times. The new White House deputy chief of staff for policy, Stephen Miller, “border tsar” Tom Homan and secretary of homeland security Kristi Noem, are all immigration hardliners, says Anthony Kurcher on the BBC. A similarly tough approach can be seen in relation to China with the choice of retired Army colonel Mike Waltz as national security adviser and congresswoman Elise Stefanik as US ambassador to the UN. Trump is lining…

It was billed in advance as a nail-biting contest, but, in the end, the result was not even close. Donald Trump won a decisive victory in the US election. That has upset some people. But there seems little doubt his restoration will boost an economy that was already doing very well to start with. His tax cuts, for example, will be significant, even if there is a risk that they will push up a deficit that is already running at 6% of GDP. The corporate tax cut from the first term will be extended, helping the competitiveness of America’s biggest companies, and some of the battier ideas that found their way into the Democratic manifesto, such as a plan to tax unrealised capital gains, will now be scrapped. The wild…

Conventional bonds have a fixed principal – also known as the face value or the par value – that the holder will receive when the bond matures. When inflation is high and maturity is a long way in the future, the real (inflation-adjusted) value of the principal will be much less when the bondholder gets paid than it is today. Assume that you hold a bond that will pay £100 in ten years’ time, but inflation over the next decade averages 5% per year. Then the £100 you get in ten years is worth just £61 in today’s terms. Investors can take into account how high they expect inflation to be when deciding what price they are willing to pay for the bond. But inflation forecasts are not very accurate,…

“The popularity of index funds is worrying. A lot of people call them passive. But they are not passive. They are [a] momentum strategy. And the momentum will last until it doesn’t.” Terry Smith (pictured), fund manager and founder of Fundsmith, quoted on Bloomberg “France used to be the centre. Now they sell handbags and Champagne – to the Chinese. That’s pretty much what’s happening to Europe.” Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb, quoted on X “Anyone who has ever struggled with poverty knows how extremely expensive it is to be poor.” Civil-rights activist James Baldwin, quoted in The New York Times “In 2011 I met Brian Chesky, the founder of Airbnb, at a conference. He was sitting right in front of me and dealing with his slides. I was thinking: this…

coindesk.com Last week’s presidential election in the US was a “real shocker” if you’re a follower of the mainstream media, pollsters and pundits, says Marc Hochstein. You would not, however, have been shocked if you follow the betting markets. If you’d kept an eye on the odds on Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt and other similar betting sites over the course of the year, you’d have known that the election results “were long within the realm of possibility”. Pollsters said the race was too close to call, and pundits said the pollsters were underestimating Kamala Harris, but markets had consistently identified Trump as the favourite. “Markets were by far and away the best forecasters of the 2024 election.” Polls and other forecasting methods have their place. Indeed, they are a valuable input…

Shares in Nissan have surged 20% after an activist investor unveiled a 2.5% stake in the struggling Japanese vehicle maker, says the Financial Times. Singapore-based Effissimo Capital Management already owns a 30% stake in Nissan Shatai, a car assembly firm controlled by Nissan, and for several years has been trying to force Nissan to take over Shatai in full. Taking a direct stake in Nissan may be an attempt to apply more pressure at a difficult time: last week, Nissan reported a quarterly loss, cut its full-year earnings guidance for the second time and announced 9,000 job losses. The firm is struggling to compete with Chinese electric carmarkers and there is speculation that it could be a takeover target or trigger a wider shake-up in Japan’s vehicle industry.…

The easiest way to invest in US small-cap shares is through an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks either one of the two major small-cap indices. The iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Ucits ETF Acc (LSE: ISP6) tracks the S&P 600, which includes companies with a median market capitalisation of $1.74bn, and has a trailing price/earnings (p/e) ratio of 16.8. The ETF has a total expense ratio of 0.3%. Alternatively, the Invesco Russell 2000 Ucits ETF Acc (LSE: RTYS) tracks the Russell 2000 index, which has a median market cap of just under $1bn and an average p/e (excluding negative earnings) of 18.31. The total expense ratio is 0.25%. One active fund to consider is the Premier Miton US Smaller Companies fund. It is a genuine small-cap fund, investing in companies with…

I have been writing a book about gold, including a chapter on the ancient art of alchemy. Alchemy is a paradox. On the one hand, it is bogus science. You cannot turn base metals into gold. A universal elixir that could cure all diseases and grant eternal life does not exist. And yet far brighter folk than me – from Isaac Newton, who at one stage thought he had cracked it, to Johannes Kepler – have kept on trying. Alchemy has captivated human beings for millennia. It is almost as old as civilisation itself. The space it occupies in modern fiction (witness Harry Potter or The Alchemist) shows the extent to which alchemy still fascinates and fixates humans the world over. Alchemy has played a huge role in the development…

Getting rid of landlines has caused controversy. While the switch to digital should improve connections, there are also risks if it is not implemented well. Hence the deadline for the PSTN switch-off has moved from 2025 to 2027 to allow more time to fix issues, after some customers experienced problems when changing over to digital. There are two big structural issues that must be resolved. First, digital voice requires power to work. To stay connected in a power cut, you will either need to have a digital phone that has a backup battery, or have a mobile phone to use in emergencies. If you are reliant on your landline phone – perhaps you live somewhere with a poor mobile signal – then your phone firm must offer you a free…

Small businesses are now more likely to hire staff on a contract or freelance basis, with Budget changes potentially set to accelerate this trend. A survey from 1st Formations, a company-formation agent, found that 53% of small companies are now looking to hire staff on freelance or short-term contracts, compared with 21% who plan to make permanent hires. Taking staff on for a limited period gives businesses greater flexibility, enabling them to expand without committing to a permanent increase in their headcount and overhead costs. And where freelancers and contractors are hired through their businesses, rather than as employees, the employer may not have to pay national insurance on their salaries. As a result, the use of freelance or short-term workers is now likely to increase, with employers nervous about…

The fund manager Peter Lynch was known for his theory that you should “buy what you know”. Of course, this was a bit more than simply buying the brands you encounter in your day-to-day shopping. Lynch also meant companies that you interact with through your job, or through being part of an industry, and he pointed out that you still had to do your homework to understand the business, balance sheet and valuation. But the logic is clear: sometimes the service you get helps you see why a company makes sense as an investment. For me, Trainline (LSE: TRN) is a good example of this. The company specialises in selling rail tickets for the entire UK rail network. As someone who does a lot of long train journeys outside London,…

As value investors, we believe that the average market participant overreacts to short-term news – often related to earnings – which often has little or no impact on the long-run intrinsic value of the underlying business. We have also historically found underpriced securities in sectors deemed “uninvestable”. Many investors are still scared of banks thanks to the 2008 crisis, or avoid airlines because of the industry’s poor long-term record. If large parts of the market are unwilling to look at a particular industry regardless of valuation, then we are more likely to find mispriced securities. “Shares in M&S have bounced from £1 to £4 in two years but remain cheap” Radical revamp pays off The tide went out for Standard Chartered (LSE: STAN) in 2014-2015 following the global commodities bust.…

Going… A banana duct taped to a wall is for sale with Sotheby’s in New York on 20 November, “once again putting the slippery value of art in the spotlight”, says The Guardian. The piece is one of three created by Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, the first having debuted at Art Basel Miami in 2019. Cattelan had bought that banana from a shop in Miami for 30 cents. The work became famous when David Datuna, a performance artist, removed and ate the banana. The winning bidder of the edition for sale will be handed a banana, a roll of duct tape, a certificate of authenticity and instructions for how to install it. It is expected to sell for between $1m and $1.5m. Gone… The only slice of wedding cake from…

“Trumphoria” has broken out on Wall Street, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote Bank. The S&P 500 has gained 4.5% since the eve of last week’s presidential election, taking its year-to-date gains to 26%. The dollar registered its biggest one-day gain since the 2016 Brexit referendum. S&P 500 financial shares jumped 6.2% the day after the election, with banks expecting lighter-touch regulation, says Jack Pitcher in The Wall Street Journal. Big tech shares rose on bets that the Biden-era “techlash” against giant corporations will ease under Trump. Small caps also enjoyed a boost (see page 5). By contrast, retailers such as Nike and Target, which manufacture overseas, fell on tariff fears. Real estate, Trump’s own sector, is also under pressure because his agenda is likely to cause higher interest rates. Counting…

The “weak” performance of BT’s “problem child” business unit is still hampering CEO Allison Kirkby’s turnaround plan, says Jillian Deutsch on Bloomberg. BT was forced to cut its sales forecast for the year to 31 March 2025 by between 1% and 2% last week. This was caused by a 6.8% adjusted revenue decline in the division serving business customers. As a result, overall second-quarter revenue fell 3% to £5.09bn, below analysts’ expectations of £5.23bn. BT’s shares promptly slipped by 5%. It’s not surprising that BT’s business unit isn’t doing very well, says Hargreaves Lansdown’s Matt Britzman. Higher expenses and “a tough competitive landscape make it a tricky place to operate”. But investors can console themselves that profit and cash-flow guidance has been “left untouched”. What’s more, as the fibre rollout…

Five to buy Johnson Matthey The TelegraphJohnson Matthey’s shares have slid 60% since 2018. The sustainable-technologies company is now ripe for recovery thanks to its valuation and growth prospects. Matthey is well placed to benefit from the global energy transition, with lower borrowing costs making net-zero projects more viable. Cost savings and a buyback programme are set to boost finances, and a “modest” forward price/earnings (p/e) ratio implies scope for growth. Although regulatory hurdles loom, Matthey’s 5.1% dividend yield, low debt, and earnings projections offer long-term appeal. 1,508p Hornby The TimesModel train-maker Hornby’s shareholders include Phoenix Asset Management, Artemis Asset Management, and Mike Ashley’s Frasers Group. The shares have halved in recent months, and “compulsive deal-maker” Ashley is providing consultancy services. Despite an increase in full-year sales to £56.2m, costs…

● Housebuilder Vistry “has seen its share price demolished by half after issuing two warnings over cost overruns”, says Oliver Shah in The Sunday Times. Maybe a “governance rebuild” is due. CEO Greg Fitzgerald, a “turbocharged entrepreneur-executive” who previously built Galliford Try into a FTSE 250 company, has been on an acquisition spree, buying Galliford’s Linden Homes and Countryside Partnerships. An “Americaninflected” shareholder base has allowed him to serve as executive chair, rather than separating the roles of CEO and chair. This “loosening” of the usual governance standards didn’t cause Vistry’s problems, but now that it needs to bounce back from them “this is certainly a time when it would help to have a brick-solid, independent chair figure”. ● Schroders’ new CEO Richard Oldfield is having a “baptism of fire”,…

“Rarely have I seen a stock-market with such extreme valuations—with some companies trading at unjustifiable premiums and others being massively undervalued,” says Carl Icahn, the US investor who made his name as a feared activist in the 1980s. “These undervalued situations have created great opportunities for activists.” Yet the market clearly isn’t convinced he can seize them. Shares in Icahn Enterprises, his holding company, fell almost 20% last week after it halved its dividend. Issues across its sprawling set of businesses – which include car repair, sausage packing and oil refining – have left it under increasing strain. The latest bad news came from CVR Energy, a refinery in which Icahn Enterprises has a 66% stake. CVR has suspended its own dividend after unplanned power outages and weak demand pushed…

newstatesman.com In the late 1970s, a divided Labour party and much of the British left thought that the victory of Margaret Thatcher was a passing phenomenon and that the post-war consensus would be restored in due course, says Jason Cowley. Others, such as cultural theorist Stuart Hall, saw that her victory had “profound cultural roots” and was but the result of “much wider forces”. Something similar has happened with Donald Trump. When he first ran for the US presidency, he was “ridiculed and written off”. When he ran a second time, he was so underestimated it was believed Kamala Harris stood a chance against him. Yet Trump keeps winning. Like Thatcherism, Trumpism is “hardening into something permanent. There is no turning back.” This has not come as a surprise to…

■ Shares in HydrogenOne Capital Growth and Foresight Environmental Infrastructure have fallen to all-time lows after HH2E, a German green-energy start-up backed by both funds, collapsed into administration. HydrogenOne wrote off £11m (8% of net assets) and said that a further £1m in loans would rank behind other creditors. The shares fell almost 30% to 27.35p, a discount of over 70% to its last reported NAV. Foresight Environmental wrote off £19.3m (2.6% of its portfolio), sending the shares down 7% to 79.5p – a discount to last reported NAV of 30%. ■ Atrato Onsite Energy is set to liquidate and return its capital to investors after selling its rooftop solar assets for £218.7m to a group led by alternative-assets firm Brookfield. Elsewhere, JPMorgan Global Core Real Assets hopes to wind…

● Learner drivers need to watch out for the growing numbers of driving-instructor scams, says Lucy Andrews in The Times. Fraudsters have latched on to the multi-month backlog in driving tests as part of a new trick to con people out of hundreds of pounds. The scammers typically advertise a package of driving lessons with a test included – but no instructor will turn up for the lesson. To add insult to injury, they often use the learner’s provisional licence number to book genuine driving test slots that they can sell on to learners who are desperate to jump the queue. Re-selling driving tests is legal, but with average waiting times at 17 weeks – due to the one million tests cancelled during the pandemic – the grey market in…

● Could generative artificial intelligence (Gen AI) help get your new business off the ground? A new government chatbot promises to help to do exactly that. The initiative is part of a trial with 15,000 companies across the country, who are being given access to a chatbot providing advice on business rules, tax and support. The tool is linked to key Gov.uk pages on how to set up new enterprises. Ministers say Gen AI could help reduce the time firms take engaging with government processes. ● Will the new Fair Payment Code do a better job of protecting small businesses paid late by their suppliers? The code, due to launch by the end of the year, introduces new standards – Gold, Silver and Bronze – for participants who pay almost…

To put it mildly, Tuesday night wasn’t great for this column. Our bet that the winner of the US presidential election would be Joe Biden or Kamala Harris – which we made back in 2020 – didn’t work out. The same goes with bets on the Democrats winning in Michigan, as well as the next president being female. And while Robert Casey Jr. hasn’t conceded defeat yet in the closely contested race for his senate seat in Pennsylvania, things don’t look good for him. Overall, just like four years ago, I underestimated Donald Trump. Still, there were a few bright spots. Successful bets included Harris taking Virginia and Maine; Tim Sheehy, Ted Cruz, Elissa Slotkin and Ruben Gallego winning their senate races; Harris getting more votes than Hillary Clinton in…