Indholdsfortegnelse for Issue 1257 i MoneyWeek

The sun sets on every empire. It is a slow, often unpredictable process, with pivotal events or milestones predating the final collapse by decades or, in Rome’s case, centuries. The British empire, for instance, began to cost more money than it yielded in the 1880s, but kept going until after World War II. But the end can come very suddenly. The internal contradictions of communism were always likely to ensure that the Soviet empire rotted away from the inside, like a floor being devoured by termites, but even in the 1980s, with the money draining away ever more quickly, few outside observers expected it to disappear by 1991. “It may be some time before Trump makes a horse a senator, but can we really rule it out?” The writing on…

Shares in Draeger, a German medical- and safety-technology specialist, may be poised to make further gains, says WirtschaftsWoche. In the first quarter of 2025, orders rose by 6.1%. The profitable safety-technology division, which comprises 85% of overall sales, is enjoying buoyant demand. There should be more growth to come now that countries are ramping up military spending. Gas masks, filtration systems for armoured vehicles and diving equipment look set to do especially well. Meanwhile, there is room for improvement in the medical-equipment division, where margins are low. The firm’s cash pile is worth 50% more than its market capitalisation.…

“Ministerial-level Ukraine peace talks”, due to take place in London on Wednesday, were downgraded at the last minute after Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, and Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy, pulled out amid “speculation” that Russia is prepared to change its position, say Dan Sabbagh and Pjotr Sauer in The Guardian. Leaks to the Financial Times and other media about separate talks between Washington and the Kremlin indicate that Russia is willing to abandon its territorial claims to three part-occupied Ukrainian regions in return for the US formally recognising Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Volodymyr Zelensky has already said that this is a red line, says Owen Matthews in The Spectator. Not only is it “constitutionally impossible”, it could trigger a civil war in Ukraine. Moscow, from…

I have written before in this column that one of the traps of setting an investment strategy is getting caught up with what you believe should happen, rather than being dispassionate about what will probably happen. Thematic investing is particularly prone to this error. Thematic funds are tricky building blocks for a portfolio, as Rupert discusses on page 19. By construction, they are frequently concentrated and volatile; they may also have a very short life if performance slumps and investors flee. Another reason to be cautious is that they usually revolve around a big idea, and big ideas encourage too much confidence. It is easy to become convinced that we should shift to renewable energy as fast as possible, for example, and ignore doubts about how quickly that can happen.…

Thematic investing has been around for decades, but the market really exploded during the pandemic. Investors sought out ways to place focused bets on stocks that would benefit most from the trillions of dollars flowing into big ideas, and asset managers responded by launching hundreds of new funds in sectors such as artificial intelligence and green energy. Between the beginning of 2020 and the end of 2021, total assets under management (AUM) in thematic active funds rose from around $290bn to a peak of almost $900bn, according to data from Morningstar – ie, they tripled in two years. However, that turned out to be a short-lived high for many thematic-investing trends. Since 2021, AUM in thematic funds has steadily declined. By mid-2024, assets had dropped to $562bn, the lowest level…

Liberals retake the high ground Janan Ganesh Financial Times For the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008, “globalisation has the high ground”, says Janan Ganesh. Tellingly, even the left is denouncing Donald Trump and choosing not to defend his protectionist measures as a “reassertion of the state”. Protectionism, it turns out, is “popular so long as no one has to make a material sacrifice”. Suddenly, “old liberal verities are sayable again. Running a current-account deficit is not a failure. Workers are also consumers. Protectionism is a charter for lobbyists.” Trade can bind together “once-hostile states”. After the “electoral flop” of Bidenomics, “it is Trump’s turn to misread the working class” as people pining to work in factories (80% of Americans want more factories but only 25% want…

capx.co Despite having a government nominally committed to it, economic growth in Britain remains elusive, says Bartek Staniszewski. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that over the next five years we will see growth in GDP of just 0.2%. That matters because without growth it is “extraordinarily difficult” to improve living standards, wages or public services, or to reduce poverty, fund the military, or build houses. Lack of growth leads people to seek out radical alternatives from the far left or right. But research from Bright Blue, a think tank, shows that the best governments for fostering growth are those of the centre-right. Over the last seven decades, economic growth under centre-right governments has been consistently higher than under left-wing or populist ones. In France, annual GDP growth under…

Ramsdens Holdings (Aim: RFX), worth £83m, provides financial services through four channels: foreign-currency exchange (forex); pawnbroking; jewellery and watch retail (new and secondhand); and precious-metal purchases. Pre-owned jewellery and watches sell at substantial prices, with diamond rings fetching between £100 and £40,000, and Rolex watches £2,000-£30,000. The firm is well diversified, as these four channels all provide comparable profit contributions. In addition, Ramsdens offers money transfers through Western Union, which make a small contribution to overall earnings. Four-part growth strategy Ramsdens serves its customers through an expanding estate of 169 UK stores and a growing online presence. Websites operate for jewellery and forex (with a click-and-collect service). A pawnbroking site opened in November 2024 and a gold-buying one came online in March 2025. Online sales now make up 20% of…

If you can pay off your credit card bill in full every month and want a credit card with some helpful perks, the following may be of interest. Cashback credit cards will give you some money back on your spending. Consider the Barclaycard Rewards card, with 0.25% cashback. This figure is doubled until 30 September if you apply before 30 April. There is no yearly fee. The Amex Everyday Cashback offers a generous 5% cashback on spending in the first five months (the maximum is £125). After that, it drops to 1% if you spend over £10,000 a year, and 0.5% if you spend under £10,000. A store-linked credit card can give you additional benefits. The M&S Bank Rewards card earns you points on your spending that can be converted…

Should members of final-salary pension schemes be concerned about rumours of a Treasury “tax raid” on pension funds? The chancellor is thought to be considering changing the law to make it easier for employers that provide final-salary pension schemes to access the surplus assets many of these schemes currently hold. By some measures, the UK’s final-salary schemes currently have assets worth £160bn more than is required to pay the pension benefits they have guaranteed to members. The Treasury thinks enabling employers to access this money could free up vital funding for investment, including in much-needed infrastructure, and boost economic growth. It would also provide a tax windfall, since employers pay 25% tax when accessing surpluses in this way. The idea appears to be a win for the economy: good news…

Mufasa: The Lion King and Paddington in Peru (pictured) helped box office revenues hit £979m last year – slightly less than in 2023 and significantly less than the £1.3bn made in 2019, before Covid struck. The fall reflects changes in distribution tactics by film studios, which have shifted to quicker home releases, says Alex Farber in The Times. During the pandemic, studios released films to home audiences earlier, because cinemas were closed. After lockdown, the time gap grew, but research shows it has been closing again steadily over the past three years. The gap has decreased from 76 days in 2022 to 52 days last year, according to consultancy 3Vision. The shift is estimated to have cost US cinemas around $130m annually. Home sales have been profitable for studios, but…

The US dollar’s travails are making gold shine brighter than ever. The yellow metal hit $3,500 an ounce (£2,600/oz) on Tuesday for the first time, with prices up 25% this year in dollar terms. Investors are seeking a safe haven from financial turmoil as US fiat currency sheds credibility. In recent years investors have been distracted by flashier opportunities such as cryptocurrencies, but in the first quarter they poured more than $19bn into gold-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While speculative ETF buying is a factor, this gold rally looks to have solid foundations, says Paul La Monica in Barron’s. Analysts at Goldman Sachs say “the bulk of the rally” has been “driven by Asian official sector buying”, meaning central banks are unlikely to sell out of their new bullion bars any…

“Cocoa markets have been hoppier than an Easter bunny,” says Lex in the Financial Times. Prices for the key chocolate ingredient almost tripled in 2024, with US retail chocolate prices a fifth higher on Valentine’s Day this year than in 2024. The surge was caused by three years of poor harvests in key suppliers Ghana and the Ivory Coast. Yet while prices remain historically elevated, things have “melted down” since February, a reminder that this is a volatile market where commodity speculators rule the roost. While supply is tight, cocoa prices do face downside risks from new weight-loss drugs and the possibility that tariffs start to sap US consumers’ demand for chocolate treats.…

Shares in Chinese tea-shop chain Chagee jumped 49% on their debut in New York, says the Financial Times, defying concerns about weak demand for new listings amid market volatility and a trade war between Washington and Beijing. The stock closed its first day of trading on the Nasdaq 14% higher. The largest Chinese listing in the US since electric-vehicle maker Zeekr last May, Chagee raised $411m and achieved a valuation of $6bn. The group operates 6,440 tea houses, mostly in China, selling premium, milk-based teas using traditional Chinese blends such as oolong, costing around $2 per drink. Sales jumped 167.4% to $1.7bn in 2024, while net income rose to $344m.…

There will be targets, quotas and guidelines. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is planning to hustle the UK’s largest pension funds into investing more money in unquoted UK assets, with a new voluntary code expected to be unveiled over the next few weeks that could unlock tens of billions of pounds in extra cash for British industry. The final version of the code – called the Mansion House Compact – will be revealed over the summer. It’s likely to stop short of setting any compulsory quotas for pension funds to invest a set percentage of their assets in the UK, an idea Reeves toyed with while she was in opposition. However, it is expected to include a voluntary commitment to invest 10% in unlisted assets such as infrastructure projects and start-ups, amounting…

When most of us put money in the stockmarket, we go long – buying shares that we believe will go up. Short-sellers do the opposite – they aim to profit from a share price falling. A short-seller borrows the shares from someone who already owns them and sells them in the open market. If the price falls, the short-seller buys the shares back at the lower price, returns them to the lender and pockets the profit. So, for example, say you want to “short” shares in troubled high-street chain Beta Retail, which currently trades at £1 a share. You borrow 10,000 shares from an index fund (which owns them because it simply tracks the underlying index) in return for a small fee. You then sell them. So you now have…

Asset Value Investors (AVI) – the manager of the AVI Global and AVI Japan Opportunity trusts – is calling for changes at Rohto Pharmaceutical, a Japanese consumer healthcare mid-cap. Rohto should focus on its core skin-care and eye-care businesses and ditch its ongoing investments in loss-making regenerative medicine, says AVI. Management should also “engage more constructively with shareholders” and comply with the Tokyo Stock Exchange’s efforts to force listed companies to deliver more value for investors. AVI says it has tried to speak to Rohto since first investing last June to raise concerns about acquisitions and issuance of convertible bonds, but has so far only met one board member, leading it to go public with its criticisms.…

“I mistakenly thought that philanthropy could change things more than it could. I didn’t realise that it takes philanthropy in concert with civil society and government – massive government funding – to change things. If you really want to affect children’s lives around the world and get vaccines out, that takes enormous government funding. Philanthropy cannot do it on its own.” Philanthropist Melinda French Gates (pictured), quoted on America’s National Public Radio “I have a chronic deficit with my barber, who doesn’t buy a darned thing from me.” US economist Robert Solow commenting on the Trump administration’s misguided view of trade imbalances, quoted in The Independent “I think people operate under a tremendous misunderstanding about what we’re paid in those circumstances. I think if people knew, I think they’d be…

thequietus.com The Good Life, a sitcom first broadcast 50 years ago, became a national favourite, says Jonn Elledge. You may remember it as a show about the “heroic” Tom and Barbara Good, and their attempts to maintain an ethical, sustainable and self-sufficient lifestyle, and their antagonistic neighbours, the “snobbish and judgmental” Leadbetters. That recollection would be wrong. The real heroes are the Leadbetters. They “display almost superhuman levels of tolerance and understanding” as the Goods bring down the neighbourhood and “make their street smell of actual, literal sh*t”. Tom Good is a “real monster” who inflicts his midlife crisis not merely on his wife, but on everyone else they know. His wife is no better. The Leadbetters, on the other hand, are the “very embodiment of noblesse oblige”, supporting their…

● “Many people just can’t afford to die,” says Martin Stott in the Financial Times. The average British funeral now costs £4,300. The bare minimum price is £1,395. “The undertakers simply turn up at the crematorium and drop off the coffin. No service. Nothing.” That is known as a direct cremation, and it’s growing in popularity, with one in seven cremations now done this way. And why not? The Centre for Death and Society at the University of Bath found no difference in the ‘grief experience’ between a traditional funeral service and a simpler one. ● A mortgage price war is under way. HSBC and the Co-operative Bank have cut rates and Halifax and Lloyds are “loosening their affordability rules to enable homebuyers to borrow more”, reports Rupert Jones in…

● The average saver in the UK increased their pension contributions by 19% last year. However, that accounted for extra cash payments of just £285. PensionBee’s analysis shows the average saver made pension contributions of just £1,477 in 2024, an increase from £1,192 in 2023. The company also pointed to a worrying increase in the gender gap on pension savings, with men saving 23% last year, while women managed only 18% extra. ● Thousands of employers are making more use of salary-sacrifice schemes to mitigate the rise in employers’ national-insurance contributions that came into effect earlier this month. If your employer asks you to consider switching to making pension contributions this way, tread carefully. For many people, salary-sacrifice schemes can work well and have no negative impact on saving for…

During a speech to a joint session of Congress on 4 March, US president Donald Trump touted a deal that would put an American firm back in control of two ports on the Panama Canal, says Forbes. He was referring to the sale of 43 ports owned by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s conglomerate CK Hutchison to a group led by asset manager BlackRock for $23bn. The two Panama ports were a small part of that sale. One of the two partners in the deal, Terminal Investment, is an arm of Swiss shipping giant Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), co-founded by Gianluigi and Rafaela Aponte in 1970. The deal will turn MSC into the largest port operator in the world. MSC’s owners have come a long way from their origins as…

2022 Racines, Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills Cuvée, California £189, per case of six bottles in bond, bbr.com Burgundian wine luminaries Étienne de Montille and Brian Sieve joined forces with Champagne maven Rodolphe Péters to form Californian “supergroup” Racines. I greatly respect all three gentlemen and have enjoyed their wines over many years. The problem with super groups is they often get bigger, louder and swampier and lose identity in their quest for more fame and fortune. Not so Racines. If anything, this spectacular coming together of minds and palates has resulted in some of the region’s most refined and compelling wines with price tags that offer epic value. In a quest to determine the perfect terroir to make chardonnay and pinot, they have picked sites that allow them to…

“Markets are discovering the real Trump trade is ‘Sell America’,” say Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson on Bloomberg. Stocks soared late last year on bets that the incoming president would initiate an American golden age. It hasn’t worked out like that. The dollar has dropped 9% against other major currencies in 2025. The US relies on international capital to finance its budget and trade deficits. As Torsten Slok of Apollo Management notes, foreigners own $19trn of US equities and $7trn of government bonds, equivalent to 20%-30% of the market. Those funds are now fleeing for more predictable climates. Politicising the Fed Trump served up fresh controversy last week, saying that the “termination” of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair “cannot come fast enough!”. Trump is angry with Powell for not…

“Are there similarities between US tariffs and Brexit? Yes, but… in the details lie important differences… Trump… wishes to unplug the US from the Chinese economy… Brexit was less about isolationism and… more about the UK… opening up to faster-growing non-EU markets… The US average tariff [is] around 20%… Compare that to… the UK Global Tariff, averaging 5.7%… Second… Britain and the EU largely negotiated in line with established precedents and within World Trade Organisation rules. The US… is using its economic might to negotiate… outside of the normal conventions… with the view that… everything should be brought into the negotiations – from Nato spending to illegal immigration… to the extent that US tariffs and Brexit are in the same family of political phenomena – let us call it populism,…

Six to buy Diploma The Telegraph Although Diploma’s earnings outlook has become increasingly uncertain given its cyclical business and broad geographic exposure, which could be negatively affected by US tariffs, the supplier of gaskets and seals looks “fundamentally sound”. It has a solid balance sheet, competitive advantage and long-term record of earnings growth. Its shares have rarely been cheap and yet have delivered a 62% gain since October 2022. The stock has scope for an upward rerating as the economic outlook improves. 3,960p Admiral Group The Times Admiral Group’s shares have doubled since July 2022 thanks to “keen pricing and nimble market positioning”. The insurer has benefited from the cost-of-living crisis as customers have prioritised competitive prices over high service levels. The group’s price-led UK motor revenue has been strong,…

● After a pandemic-era boom, Halfords’ share price “has looked more like the down-hills that follow big mountain climbs in the Tour de France”, says Jennifer Hughes in the Financial Times. The cycling and motoring retailer has seen its market value shrink by two-thirds since mid-2021. Still, the shares rallied last week on signs that a push to up-sell more services at its motoring arm is “revving up the business”. True, higher employer taxes have so far offset much of the gains and there are other potential potholes, such as the impact of a weaker economy on bike sales and the arrival of a new CEO with little experience in the sector. Still, with Halfords trading on just 12 times trailing earnings and sales improving, “Lycraclad bankers will now be…

The future of most equity investment trusts lies in “moving halfway towards an active ETF”, says Peter Spiller, the veteran manager of Capital Gearing Trust. Boards should adopt a zero-discount policy that includes buybacks to keep shares in line with net asset (NAV) when they are at a discount, he tells Citywire. They should also issue shares when the trust trades at a premium to NAV. The arrival of US activist Saba Capital has shaken up the sector and is helping to drive a wave of activity. In the past, the level of buybacks has been “wholly insufficient”, with boards being satisfied if they were trading in line with peers. That has now changed. “Where we’re left, I think, is with an awareness that Saba or someone like them is…

■ Urban Logistics – the warehouse specialist under attack from activist investors over alleged conflicts of interest regarding its manager – says it is “minded to recommend” a takeover bid from LondonMetric. The offer of 0.5612 LondonMetric shares and 42.8p in cash values Urban Logistics at 150p per share (as of Wednesday), a 21% premium to the pre-offer price and a 6% discount to net asset value (NAV). LondonMetric, which focuses on triple net leases (ie, the tenant pays the operating expenses), has grown through a series of acquisitions in recent years, including A&J Mucklow, CT Property and LXi, and entered the FTSE 100 last year. ■ Tritax Big Box has sold half the “non core” assets it acquired when merging with UK Commercial Property last May. The properties –…

unherd.com In Britain, many sports and leisure activities mark you out as being from a certain social class, says Joel Budd. Snooker, darts, boxing and bingo have different connotations from cricket, sailing and dressage. Pimping up your car with large spoilers and sound systems is largely a working-class activity – and it’s seeing a revival. The culture is especially strong in working-class places that have a bit of money – in Aberdeen, for example, with its good manual jobs in the oil and gas industry – and gives mainly white, working-class Britons the chance to “flaunt their artistry and skill”. The wildest years of the craze in the 1990s, when there would be big informal meet-ups of boy racers driving wildly, are now behind us. That’s a shame. All involved…

Pensions will soon be subject to Britain’s most hated tax. At present, pension savings are exempt from inheritance tax (IHT), but this is set to change from April 2027. Before the rule change, putting as much wealth as possible into your pension and then drawing on other savings first in retirement was the obvious approach. The picture now is more complex. “Including pensions in [IHT] calculations creates the prospect of double taxation, where the pension pot exceeds the IHT threshold and the beneficiary is taxed again at their marginal income tax rate,” says Richard Wilson, CEO at Interactive Investor. In addition to IHT at 40% above £325,000, you also have to pay income tax on any pension withdrawals that exceed the personal allowance, unless the original pension holder died before…

Savers approaching retirement usually either buy an annuity that pays a guaranteed income for life (but with no prospect of further investment growth), or draw income directly from their pension funds, which can be left invested but offer no guarantees about long-term security. Yet maybe there is a middle way. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) thinks so. It has just published new research advocating a “flex first, fix later” approach to retirement income. The think tank suggests this should be the default option for savers with money-purchase pension savings – as opposed to guaranteed final-salary benefits. People could automatically be switched into products offering this approach unless they have given different instructions, the IFS suggests. The idea is simple. In the first ten years of your retirement, you would…

The Murray Income Trust was incorporated over 100 years ago and has a record of 51 consecutive years of dividend growth. The portfolio is broadly diversified across sectors, but has a focus on higher-quality companies. The benefit of this tilt towards quality is demonstrated by a portfolio that can grow its earnings and hence its dividends in a variety of market conditions. The fund invests principally in the UK market, which now increasingly represents a relatively safe haven in a world turned upside down by president Donald Trump’s tariffs. Fortunately, UK exporters are benefiting from a lower tariff level than many of their international competitors. The tariff shock comes at a time when the outlook for UK-listed firms is improving. With lower energy and food prices, pressure on consumers is…

Get In The Inside Story of Labour Under Starmer Patrick Maguire and Gabriel Pogrund Bodley Head, £25 The political landscape shifts with dizzying speed. Barely nine months after Labour’s decisive general election victory, the party is languishing in the polls. Patrick Maguire’s and Gabriel Pogrund’s Get In: The Inside Story of Labour Under Starmer offers a timely, if somewhat premature, post-mortem. Its focus is largely on the opposition years, but the authors posit that the seeds of Labour’s current unease were sown during the period it chronicles. Maguire and Pogrund identify two pivotal figures in Labour’s electoral success: Morgan McSweeney, campaign strategist and now chief of staff, and Keir Starmer himself. Their portrayal of McSweeney is largely sympathetic, casting his relentless pursuit of party discipline as a necessary, if at…