Indholdsfortegnelse for Issue 1269 i MoneyWeek

“The 69,000 tally of jobs shed in the UK hospitality industry since the increase in employers’ national-insurance contributions [may just be the start]… The UKHospitality trade association thinks losses could rise to between 150,000 and 200,000 by the autumn, as 70% of member businesses cut more staff and pub closures… continue apace. How obvious is it that bar and restaurant work offers a vital path to keep young people out of welfare queues and other forms of trouble and to teach them principles of customer service that can be reapplied in more progressive careers?… And how important it is for social cohesion… that the last pub in the village should survive?… The more thriving the hospitality sector, the more cheerful the nation [and] the better chance this hopelessly incompetent cabinet…

Ten years after Kraft Foods and Heinz were merged with the help of Warren Buffett and Brazilian private-equity firm 3G Capital Partners, Kraft Heinz is now preparing to break itself up, say Lauren Thomas and Jesse Newman in The Wall Street Journal. The idea is to spin off a large chunk of its grocery business, leaving a firm focused on goods such as sauces and spreads, like Heinz’s namesake ketchup and Dijon-mustard brand Grey Poupon. Big food companies are “facing a reckoning as inflation-weary consumers baulk at sharply higher grocery prices, hunt for deals and switch to store-brand goods”. These problems are compounded by households’ growing preference for “fresher, healthier fare”. The demerger represents a rare miss for the otherwise legendary investor Warren Buffett, says Bloomberg’s Jayna Rohslau. His love…

Natural-gas pipeline operator Kinder Morgan is benefiting from the AI boom as data centres demand more and more energy, says Barron’s. The stock looks reasonably priced thanks to robust demand in the US, Europe and Asia. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have surged as gas is considered a cleaner alternative to oil and coal. The shares could surpass their January highs if the US government green-lights new projects, while Kinder can easily expand capacity at existing assets. Analysts expect earnings per share to grow more than 10% this year. Kinder’s strong balance sheet, contracts with big AI players, and fee-based revenue are a hedge against a possible slip in natural gas prices.…

The future of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was “thrown into doubt” on Monday night when the ultra-orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) alliance announced it was pulling out of the ruling coalition, effective as of Wednesday night, says Aaron Boxerman in The New York Times. If more parties quit – and a second, larger ultra-Orthodox party, Shas, is threatening to do so – that would wipe out Netanyahu’s majority in the Knesset. At issue is an end to the exemption from compulsory military service for religious seminary students. The exemptions have been in place since Israel’s founding in 1948, but Israel’s supreme court has deemed them unconstitutional and the “vast majority” of the public are in favour of conscription for the ultra-Orthodox community, also known as Haredim, says…

One of the reasons for holding oil stocks in our multi-asset model portfolio is to hedge against extreme geopolitical upheaval. Oil tends to rise during conflicts because traders worry about whether supplies will be interrupted. Yet prices did very little during the recent war between Iran and Israel: they spiked briefly during the initial attacks, but dropped back when traders concluded that Iran was unlikely to blockade the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow shipping lane that carries one-fifth of the world’s crude oil. In many respects, this is what we want to see when holding a hedge. A world in which oil supply is not severely disrupted is much better for the rest of the portfolio. Still, hedges come with a cost and the question here is where the…

The spirits industry will endure Breakingviews Edward Chancellor Investors often confuse cyclical swings with “secular movements” in the fortunes of companies, says Edward Chancellor. “When revenue turns down, they panic.” This is what is happening in the spirits industry. After a “pandemic binge”, the hangover has been “severe”. The cost-of-living crisis reduced consumer spending, China imposed “punitive” tariffs on European brandy and Donald Trump threatens to do likewise. Generation Z is reportedly giving up alcoholic drinks and the World Health Organisation wants to put health warnings on alcohol. However, history provides a “simple rule of thumb”: “the longer something has existed, the longer it is likely to persist”. Spirits companies have the “longest brand histories out there”. They have other competitive advantages. They have geographical restrictions (you can’t make Scotch…

project-syndicate.org Political economists who focus on economic costs and benefits – and argue that legislation that creates material gains for organised, politically well-connected groups is likely to endure – struggle to explain Donald Trump’s presidency, says Dani Rodrik. The conventional wisdom would suggest that Trump would get nowhere in ending the green subsidies created by Joe Biden for these reasons. Yet Trump did it anyway. What we need to accept to understand this is that “ideology sometimes trumps material interests”. Many Republican lawmakers in passing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” voted against their constituents’ economic interests. Some did so because they “feared reprisals” from Trump if they did not; some because they “truly are climate sceptics”. “Regardless, it was ideas about what is important and how the world works, rather than…

US activist ASL Strategic Value Fund is seeking to oust the entire board of a narcolepsy drug manufacturer over the “disappointing execution” of the launch of its flagship drug, claiming that this led to the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue. ASL is urging Avadel Pharmaceuticals’ investors to vote against all of the firm’s director nominees at the annual meeting in late July and is calling for Avadel to hire advisers to explore a sale of the business. ASL also wants Avadel to issue contingent-value rights to its shareholders, which would give them rights to damages or settlements arising from a multi-year legal fight with Jazz Pharmaceuticals, the marker leader in narcolepsy drugs, over patents that Jazz used to delay the launch of Avadel’s drug.…

Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad shows no signs of slowing down at 100, says Eileen Ng in The Independent. He remains a “towering figure” in Malaysian politics, known for his “transformative and at times controversial” leadership. Mahathir served as PM from 1981 to 2003 and returned to office in 2018, taking power at the age of 92. In his first term he transformed Malaysia into a modern economy. He came out of retirement in 2018 to challenge his former party over the multi-billion-dollar 1MDB corruption scandal. His victory was hailed as a “triumph for democracy”, but his government collapsed after just 22 months. In opposition, Mahathir remains a controversial figure, continuing to argue for “affirmative action” to favour his own ethnic group and working with an Islamist party he…

2020 San Leonardo, Tenuta San Leonardo, Trentino, Italy £348 in bond per case of six bottles; £390 in bond per case of three magnums, honestgrapes.co.uk After last week’s double bill of inexpensive wines, I felt the need to go for three phenomenal Italian wines with eye-watering prices! I’ll start you off gently with my featured red. I have long been a fan of the stunningly elegant wines from this unique estate. The counterpoint between the scale of complexity of flavour and the elegance and freshness of this 12.5% alcohol wine is extraordinary. It is only five years old and drinking perfectly, but it will hold for a further two decades. At the £75-mark, it is one of the world’s most sophisticated and enchanting red wines. My second red is the…

The Phoenician Scheme Directed by Wes Anderson Now playing at cinemas Wes Anderson, renowned for his quirky and offbeat comedic films, has ventured into the world of high finance with The Phoenician Scheme. After surviving an assassination attempt, which briefly sends him to the afterlife, ruthless businessman Anatole “Zsa-Zsa” Korda (Benicio del Toro) decides it’s time to reconcile with his estranged daughter, Liesl (Mia Threapleton).The catch? Liesl is on the cusp of becoming a nun and wants nothing to do with Korda or the massive “Phoenician scheme” he’s embroiled in. As fate would have it, Liesl has little choice in the matter. When various government agencies, fed up with Korda’s illicit dealings, conspire to sabotage his project by inflating the price of rivets, Korda insists Liesl accompany him on…

Fresh from claiming to have brought back the dire wolf from extinction, Colossal Biosciences – a company backed by Lord of the Rings director Peter Jackson (pictured) – has turned its attention to the long-lost moa, a 12-foot flightless bird hunted to extinction in New Zealand 600 years ago, says Jeffrey Kluger in Time. Jackson, himself a New Zealander, tells the magazine he “always dreamed of… [bringing] back extinct species”. But the process is far from easy. Essentially, a male tinamou or emu (a living species related to the moa) is genetically engineered to produce moa sperm that can eventually be used to father moa chicks. It will probably take around ten years, says Ben Lamm, CEO and co-founder of Colossal. Nor is bringing back the moa going to be…

Has Japan finally maxed out its credit card? Tokyo has long used spending to paper over the problems created by economic stagnation, say River Akira Davis and Hisako Ueno in The New York Times, and debt has ballooned to $9trn, more than double the size of the economy. Many have predicted fiscal doom over the years, but negative interest rates kept things under control. Yet with interest rates rising to 0.5%, “yellow lights are flashing, and at any moment any of them could turn red”, says former finance ministry civil servant Koji Yano. Interest payments already “gobble up a tenth of the central government’s budget”, says The Economist. The situation isn’t catastrophic, as 88% of Japanese government debt is held by local investors and institutions, making the country more resilient…

S&P 500’s concentration US technology shares wobbled over the spring, say Madison Mills and Dan Primack on Axios. Now they are booming again. The sector has accounted for nearly half of all the S&P 500 index’s earnings growth this year. Big Tech’s comeback has sent market concentration back to dangerously “extreme” levels, says Torsten Slok of Apollo. The ten largest firms – including Nvidia, Apple and Amazon – now account for nearly 40% of market value and more than a quarter of earnings for America’s top 500 stocks. Investors usually seek diversification, but anyone with a stake in the main US benchmark index today is essentially making a concentrated bet on the “Magnificent Seven stocks climbing even higher”.…

Last week housebuilder Vistry, the biggest developer in Britain, admitted it would need “a big second half” of the year to meet its annual revenue and profit targets, says Tom Howard in The Times. Vistry’s completions, profits, sales rates, site numbers, order book and land purchases in the opening six months of 2025 were all down year on year. This complicates chairman Greg Fitzgerald’s attempts to “steady the ship” after several profit warnings last year. They were caused by underestimating by £165m how much it would cost to build out nine sites in the south of England. However, Vistry is still optimistic, expecting to beat the £264m annual pre-tax profit it generated in 2024. The numbers are clearly “not ones on which Vistry will want to linger”, with estimated sales…

Joe & the Juice could list as soon as next year in New York with a valuation of about €2bn, says Bloomberg. The Danish juice-and-coffee chain’s majority owner, General Atlantic, is speaking to advisers about a potential initial public offering (IPO) and could select banks later this year. The US private-equity firm first invested in Joe & the Juice in 2016 and bought a majority stake in November 2023 from Swedish investor Valedo Partners. Joe & the Juice, founded in 2002, owns 363 outlets in Europe, Asia, and the US, with some run by franchisees. For fiscal year 2023 revenue grew by DKr600m (£70m) to DKr2.4bn and adjusted earnings of DKr498m.…

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa has suspended his minister of police, Senzo Mchunu, after a top police official accused him of colluding with a criminal syndicate and interfering in high-profile investigations, says Nomsa Maseko on the BBC. Ramaphosa also announced a judicial commission to investigate the claims, which he said “undermined the constitution and threatened national security”. Mchunu, 67, denies all allegations. Mchunu is an influential figure in Ramaphosa’s African National Congress party and has been tipped as a potential candidate to succeed him when the ANC elects its next leader in 2027. Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi, police commissioner of KwaZulu-Natal province, who went public with the claims, alleges that Mchunu’s “political endeavours” were being funded by a suspect in a corruption case. Mkhwanazi himself is under investigation after corruption allegations relating…

When chancellor Rachel Reeves was seen with tears in her eyes in the House of Commons recently, it was probably because she had been contemplating the prospects for the economy over the next few months. She promised she would generate “growth, growth, growth”, but so far, there has been very little sign of it. Her Budget last autumn stopped the economy in its tracks. The non-doms fled. Companies put a freeze on hiring. It has been a dismal start to her time in office and it’s not now clear how long she can survive. Yet she can claim one achievement. The FTSE 100 hit an all-time high this week, briefly nudging through 9,000. It fell back soon afterwards, but it is still up significantly on the year so far. It…

A stock split happens when a company decides to increase the number of its shares in issue by giving existing investors additional shares for each share they currently hold. The firm’s share price falls to reflect the enlarged share base, but its market capitalisation stays the same. The total value of each investor’s shareholding remains unchanged as well, because they hold the same percentage of the firm after the split as they did before. For example, assume that a company has 100 million shares in issue and a share price of £50 per share. It carries out a 2:1 (or two-for-one) split, meaning that the investor ends up with two shares for every one they originally had. Then the total number of shares increases to 200 million and the share…

“I loved it because, as a songwriter, you love to hear how other people interpret your songs. And… I knew it was going to make a lot of money.” Dolly Parton (pictured) on Beyoncé covering her 1973 hit song Jolene, quoted on X “We’re all members of the precariat, basically. We don’t know how long we’ll have paid work if we do have it, and we just don’t know how long this will last because our economy, our society, is in a long-form revolutionary transformation.” Author Irvine Welsh on how we’re all starting to resemble the characters in his novel Trainspotting, quoted on BBC News “Everyone assumes from my voice that I’m working class. Now, it depends [on] what you define as working class. Technically, I’m not working class because…

noahpinion.blog In the 1990s and 2000s, science fiction focused on “the Singularity”, says Noah Smith – the tipping point where technological progress became so dramatic that human existence itself would be utterly transformed in ways impossible to predict. It feels like we’re now entering that post-human age. Globally, fertility rates are collapsing, presaging long-term population shrinkage. But even as humanity “shrinks in physical space”, it is binding itself together in digital space. That expands the potential for “collective intelligence”. We all now rely on the collective hive mind of digital space for all we do. The result may be individuals with less in the way of creative or cognitive skills, just as the plough led to humans with weaker biceps, and the calculator eroded mental arithmetic. But the future for…

“The tide of cheap money had gone out and many investors who had piled in near the top were left painfully exposed” In June, Spectris, the high-tech precision measurement firm, was bid for by private-equity giant Advent International, which prompted a bidding war. In a year marked by a large number of takeovers, this one stands out. It was bought because it is a high-quality global leader that was too cheap. This is more than just another deal – it’s a profound warning for investors in Britain’s most respected companies. For more than a decade following the 2008 financial crisis, a select group of top UK firms, including Spectris, were the darlings of the stockmarket. Their reliable profits and steady growth, in an era of rock-bottom interest rates, led investors…

● A growing minority of shareholders in Worldwide Healthcare Trust again voted against the re-election of two of the board at its annual general meeting (AGM) last week. Around 30% of votes were cast against chair Doug McCutcheon and co-manager Sven Borho, with opponents arguing that McCutcheon’s 12 years of service means that he is no longer independent and Borho, as a manager of the fund, should not be on the board. At last year’s AGM, around 25% of votes were cast against both. The board said that it “will continue to engage with shareholders on these and other matters”. ● Wind-focused renewables trusts such as Greencoat UK Wind and the Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG) should benefit from the decision to ditch plans for zonal energy pricing, say analysts at…

“Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy’s top domestic bank, keeps expanding and offers a premium 7% yield” Murray International Trust is a globally diversified investment trust aiming to deliver an attractive and growing income, alongside long-term capital growth. By investing in companies with sustainable and rising cash flows, the fund avoids overexposure to low-yielding stocks, making it a distinctive complement to more growth-focused global funds. Recognised as a “dividend hero” by the Association of Investment Companies (AIC), Murray International has increased its dividend for 20 consecutive years. It is managed by an experienced team at Aberdeen who have worked together for over two decades and is supported by researchers posted to key developed and emerging markets, helping to uncover high-quality opportunities wherever they arise. Banking on growth Intesa Sanpaolo (Milan: ISP), Italy’s biggest…

Bitcoin prices topped $120,000 (£89,500) for the first time on Monday. The world’s biggest cryptocurrency has gained 25% this year as once hostile US regulators become more friendly to digital assets. Ether, the second largest digital token, has also rallied to a five-month high, reports Reuters. The overall market value of all cryptocurrencies “has swelled to about $3.81trn”. Digital money goes mainstream The Genius Act, which is currently working its way through the US Congress, is a key plank of the Trump administration’s efforts to turn the US into the world’s “crypto capital”. It will create a light-touch regulatory framework for stablecoins, which, unlike bitcoin, are backed by assets such as the US dollar. Advocates say stablecoins deliver the flexibility of crypto, but without the infamous volatility. Bulls hope they…

Five to buy Pets at Home The Times Market leader Pets at Home claims 26% of the £7bn spent on pets each year, and its turnover is three times that of rival CVS. The group sells pet food, accessories and veterinary care, and its loyalty scheme has 8.2 million members. Profits fell after the Covid-era boom, while a regulatory probe and uncertainty over household spending now loom. But given our devotion to our pets, the firm should benefit as growth returns. In the longer term, higher living standards will lead to more pet ownership. 245p Haleon The Telegraph Ever since Haleon was spun out of GSK in 2022, the consumer-goods firm has had to contend with restrictive monetary policy and high inflation eroding disposable incomes. Yet the stock has gained…

Donald Trump’s new weapons deal for Ukraine and threat of tariffs against Russia represent his strongest support for Kyiv following months of “dramatically shifting positions”, say Catherine Belton and Robyn Dixon in The Washington Post. In February he halted the flow of military aid to Kyiv after giving the president, Volodymyr Zelensky, a dressing down in the Oval Office, and appeared to be more sympathetic to Russia. That all seems to have changed, with Trump saying that the US will resume the supply of weapons and threatening 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if there’s no peace deal by September. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Russia “didn’t care” about what he described as Trump’s “theatrical ultimatum”, although the Russian elite are increasingly uneasy about the economy, which is pitching “toward…

● “Those Warehouse Reit sheds must be looking prettier,” says Alistair Osborne in The Times. Back in May, Blackstone cut its cash bid for the logistics specialist from 113.4p per share to 109p after a dispute over the value of a site near Crewe. The US firm was then outbid by Tritax Big Box, with a cash-and-shares offer that is now worth 111.1p. So Blackstone has returned with improved terms worth 115p (including an upcoming dividend). “Yet, even if Big Box doesn’t top up its bid, there’s not a shedload of difference in the price.” Blackstone’s cash exit is still a big discount to Warehouse’s 128p net asset value, while Big Box is offering cash upfront, plus the chance to remain invested in a larger group with complementary assets. Warehouse’s…

Chris Hohn, founder, The Children’s Investment Fund Companies with high barriers to entry – irreplaceable physical assets or strong intellectual property – are more likely to be good investments, says Chris Hohn, who runs $70bn in assets at The Children’s Investment Fund. “People just look at earnings. They don’t look at asset value,” Hohn tells Nicolai Tangen, CEO of the Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, on a podcast. Airports, railways and telecom towers are natural monopolies, since getting permission to expand or build them is difficult. While many of these business are regulated, they may still earn attractive low-risk returns and sometimes much more. Airports have regulated landing charges, but other revenues – such as shops and advertising – can be very profitable, as with AENA in Spain. Many investors focus…

conservativehome.com We are “on the brink of a technological revolution so profound as to render our current concerns irrelevant”, says Peter Franklin. The debate over artificial intelligence (AI) is divided between sceptics who believe it is being massively overhyped and those who think it is near a tipping point that will create either a new age of abundance or an apocalypse. The truth surely lies between these two extremes, but major social and economic change seems likely. Yet, ironically, the future will look more like the past than the present. We and our parents and grandparents have already lived through the fastest pace of technological change in the history of the world. Change brought about by AI is going to seem more like marginal improvement. Yet the changes wrought have…

A five-year investment return of 25% looks miserable compared with the 71% return of the MSCI All Country World index, so why does Personal Assets Trust (LSE: PNL) have £1.6bn of assets and trade at a negligible discount to net asset value (NAV)? The answer is that PNL – like Capital Gearing (LSE: CGT) and Ruffer Investment Company (LSE: RICA) – isn’t targeted at those who want to get rich through investment, but at those who want to stay rich. “Our policy is to protect and increase (in that order) the value of shareholders’ funds per share over the long term” is the trust’s strapline. Risk-averse investors could certainly have done much worse over the past five years: the average return from investing in supposedly safe gilts has been -22%.…

Retirement-products business Just Group (LSE: JUST) has had a mixed time as a public company. It floated towards the end of 2013 and the shares quickly soared 35% above the initial public offering (IPO) price. The euphoria didn’t last. A year later, the stock was trading below the IPO price, as investors struggled to buy into the growth story. Just was formed to develop and sell retirement products into the UK market. That’s a tough ambition at the best of times, but it’s even harder for a new business trying to break into the market. The UK retirement savings market is dominated by giants such as Legal & General, Aviva and Prudential, which have been around for generations. People know and trust these brands. Just’s problems came to a head…

The Gold Series 2 Written by Neil Forsyth Available on iPlayer Two years ago, the BBC captivated audiences with The Gold, a mini-series chronicling the infamous Brink’s-Mat robbery and its aftermath. But the initial season concluded on a bittersweet note for the police task force. While they incarcerated most of those directly involved in the raid, smelter John Palmer was acquitted of money-laundering charges and, crucially, half the gold remained unaccounted for. Much of the missing metal was never recovered. Asset seizures and civil cases took decades to recoup even a fraction of the funds. Still, the first series’ success prompted the BBC to commission a sequel that blends fact and fiction more freely. The new series opens with the investigation in disarray after the remaining gold is spirited away…