Indholdsfortegnelse for Issue 1282 i MoneyWeek

Vietnam is to be upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market by index provider FTSE Russell, a long-awaited move that should help to bring in more foreign capital and raise valuations. The news saw the local VN-index jump 3%. Up 39% for the year to date, Vietnamese shares are among “the world’s best performers” this year, say Kimberley Kao and Jason Chau in The Wall Street Journal. The Southeast Asian nation has been on FTSE Russell’s watch list for an upgrade since 2018. The government has “spent years loosening foreign investment limits and improving transparency” to win the upgrade. Vietnam’s market is “coming of age”, says Tuan Le of Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited (VEIL). In the short-term, the upgrade could bring an extra $500m into the market through…

Danish drug giant Novo Nordisk is to buy Akero Therapeutics for up to $5.2bn, say Bloomberg’s Naomi Kresge and Lisa Pham. The deal is designed to take control of Akero’s experimental treatment for fatty liver disease (MASH). Akero’s share price has already soared 60% this year after early-stage trials showed the drug may reverse liver damage. Novo’s CEO Mike Doustdar hopes it could become a “cornerstone” treatment for the condition, possibly along with Novo’s anti-obesity drug Wegovy. In that case, the deal could fit in with Doustdar’s goal of “investing to deliver growth”. Doustdar thinks that “bulking up in a condition that affects 250 million people makes sense”, says Aimee Donnellan on Breakingviews. But both rivals Pfizer and Roche are also developing drugs for MASH. What’s more, the deal does…

Chinese robot maker AgiBot plans to list in Hong Kong by the third quarter of 2026 with a valuation between HK$40bn and HK$50bn (£3.9bn and £4.6bn), says Reuters. The firm, valued at $2.07bn in March, aims to issue 15%-25% of its stock in the initial public offering (IPO), which is backed by investors such as Tencent. The IPO is part of China’s efforts to advance automation owing to its ageing population and increasing competition in robotics with the US. AgiBot develops humanoid robots for use in the manufacturing and logistics sectors, and has tools for data collection. Ubtech Robotics was the first humanoid robot company to list in Hong Kong – in 2023.…

Japan’s Buddhistbacked Komeito Party ended its 26-year partnership with the ruling Liberal Democrat Party last Friday, raising doubts as to whether the new LDP leader, Sanae Takaichi, can secure enough parliamentary votes to become prime minister. Japan’s parliament, the Diet, is expected to elect a new prime minister on 21 October. The “collapse of the ruling coalition” has “catapulted” Yuichiro Tamaki into pole position, says Alastair Gale in Bloomberg. His Democratic Party for the People is meeting with two opposition parties this week to see if they can agree to back a single candidate. The parties’ 210 seats in the 465-seat lower house mean Tamaki would be on track to win should the LDP – which has 196 seats – fail to find any additional votes. The DPP is a…

It was possibly the worst news the industry could have received. Last week, the EU set out plans to cut the amount of steel it allows to be imported into member countries by half and impose tariffs of 50% on top of anything above that. With US president Donald Trump imposing steep levies on imports into the US, the EU is worried that manufacturers will start dumping excess production in Europe instead. It may well have a point. After all, there are not many other places it can go and production can’t be wound down very quickly. Almost 300,000 people still work in Europe’s steel industry, with an estimated 2.5 million jobs dependent on its supply chain, and it can hardly afford to give those up. Tariffs are an obvious…

The capitalisation rate (or cap rate) is used to value real-estate investments. It is calculated as annual net operating income (NOI) produced by a property, divided by the current value of the property. In turn, net operating income is the income that a property generates – which will usually mostly be rent, but may include other recurring income – minus the operating expenses. It does not deduct the costs of financing the investment, such as interest payments on a mortgage. Let’s assume that a property produces NOI of £5,000 per year and is valued at £100,000. Then the cap rate is 5% (£5,000 ÷ £100,000). Conversely, let’s assume that the average cap rate for recent transactions on a series of comparable properties is 7.5% and we have a property with…

“I assume I’ll die soon, so I want to work every day.” Artist David Hockney (pictured), interviewed in The Telegraph “I like to deal with people where I feel a one-page contract will do the job. If I have to have 50 pages in there to protect me against the guy I’m dealing with, I’ll always wonder whether I’ll need 51.” Warren Buffett, quoted on social-media platform X “The Dow Jones could climb to heaven.” Evangeline Adams, an astrologer who rose to prominence in the 1920s US stockmarket bubble, quoted in The Times. Her clients included Charlie Chaplin and J.P. Morgan. She lost $100,000 on Black Thursday and told her broker to sell everything “People talk about stockpiling things like crypto – I always say we should be stockpiling bullets,…

ft.com/alphaville The recent profit warning from Aston Martin Lagonda is a “good excuse to run the numbers”, says Bryce Elder. They’re not pretty. Based on group free cash flow, each car the company sold wholesale since 2014 has cost it more than £45,000 on average. Assuming 62,000 cars delivered between then and the end of the current year, that adds up to a £2.8bn customer subsidy – one funded by new equity (nearly £2bn raised since the firm floated) and debt (more than £400m of new issuance, pushing year-end net debt to £1.3bn, or nearly eight times Ebitda). It has proved to be a “very expensive vanity project” for Lawrence Stroll, whose consortium rescued Aston from probably bankruptcy in 2020. There’s probably more woe to come. JPMorgan forecasts £360m of…

● Manchester and London, the AI-focused independent investment trust, is thought to be in merger talks with several trusts that have been targeted by activist investor Saba Capital, says Citywire. The other trusts believe that consolidation is the only way to avoid pressure from Saba to wind down. Manchester and London’s manager Mark Sheppard owns more than 62% of its shares, which would restrict Saba’s influence in a merger. Meanwhile, Manchester and London has had to pause share buybacks despite its 29% discount to net asset value (NAV) to avoid losing its investment trust status (which requires 35% of shares to be in public hands) and needs to trim Sheppard’s stake. However, Sheppard’s ultra-concentrated approach – he has 65% of the £420m portfolio in Nvidia and Microsoft – might prove…

There’s something interesting happening in the world of fintech that has never been seen before in finance. The likes of Venmo, Klarna (NYSE: KLAR) and Revolut have become so integral to consumers’ day-to-day habits in their largest markets that their names are being used as verbs. In the US, it’s common to “Venmo” shared meals between friends, while in Ireland, where 73% of people have a Revolut account, “I’ll Revolut you” is now what people say if they’re sending money. To “Klarna it” has become slang for buying something you can’t afford. It’s not great marketing that’s helped these firms capture users’ attention, but ease of use. Revolut has grabbed market share from Ireland’s big banks as their apps are clunky, fees are high and payments can take days to…

As is often the case, my six long tips put in a mixed performance over the past fortnight, with three rising and three falling. Vending machine company ME Group rose from 185p to 189p, Dunelm Group advanced from 1,087p to 1,126p, and renewable-energy group First Solar also increased – from $223 to $226. However, soft-drinks company AG Barr, the maker of Irn-Bru, fell from 678p to 673p, telecoms firm Airtel Africa depreciated from 232p to 230p and food-distribution company Sysco also went down, from $81.84 to $78.27. Overall, the losses outweighed the gains, although the fact that my net profits fell from £1,733 a fortnight ago to £802 is mostly due to the fact that I previously closed my profitable position on Electronic Arts. Sadly, two out of my three…

Back in July, Christine Hunsicker (pictured), the founder of US clothing-rental company CaaStle, was arrested on federal charges accusing her of cheating investors out of $300m. Prosecutors allege she misrepresented the firm’s performance, making false revenue projections, falsely claiming to have millions of dollars of cash on hand, and continuing to seek new capital when removed by the board, reported ABC News. The truth was that the firm was near collapse. Hunsicker pleaded not guilty and is awaiting trial. Before the allegations emerged, Hunsicker “seemed to be a rising star in the fashion world”, says CBS News. Inc magazine named her “most impressive woman entrepreneur” and she was recognised by the National Retail Federation as someone shaping the future of the industry. In 2011, Hunsicker started Gwynnie Bee, a subscription…

2024 Blanko-B by the Blankbottle Winery, Luuks, Helderberg, Stellenbosch, South Africa £37.50, swig.co.uk I recently attended the spectacular Swig Wines tasting, and while this indie wine merchant has long held a candle for elite South African wines, the portfolio today is undoubtedly the finest. My featured Luuks is a cool-climate, ripe, and dramatic chardonnay with perfect oak augmentation, and it is breathtakingly delicious. In addition, winemaker Pieter Walser’s greatest wine line-up to date included 2023 Seelug Chardonnay (£38), a firm, saline, mouthwatering chardonnay with shimmering acidity and effortless class. His 2023 B-Bos I (£34, arriving in November) is a sauvignon blanc/semillon blend from the southernmost tip of the country, Cape Agulhas, and it would make any Loire, Graves or Marlborough winemaker blush. While the 2024 Moment of Silence (£22.95) is…

Going… Dozens of paintings by Bob Ross, the US artist who rose to fame in the 1980s on the TV programme The Joy of Painting, are heading for sale with Bonhams on 11 November (Cliffside, 1990, is pictured). The proceeds will support public broadcasters in the US, whose $1.1bn in federal funding was cut off this summer. Several Republicans accused PBS, the biggest public broadcaster, of “promoting ‘woke propaganda’,” says The Washington Post. Ross, who died in 1995, taught painting skills on his programme, which ran on PBS and became popular during the pandemic. Earlier this year, two of Ross’s paintings sold at auction for $95,750 and $114,800. Gone… A charity auction of 53 sculptures of Gromit, the dog from the animated Wallace & Gromit films, took the total raised…

“Two huge heavyweights” are in the ring. “I haven’t had so much fun since the ‘Thrilla in Manila’,” an unnamed former US official tells the Financial Times. The world’s two superpowers are squaring off again, as a tariff truce brokered in Geneva in May begins to break down. Beijing has announced plans for much stricter controls on exports of rare-earth metals. China controls more than 90% of processed rare-earth capacity, leaving foreign producers of everything from aircraft engines to electric cars exposed. US president Donald Trump fired back, threatening new 100% tariffs on imports from China “over and above” the existing average China levy of 30%. The renewed trade war took markets by surprise. US exchanges endured their worst day in six months. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.6% on 10…

Five to buy Vertu Motors Investors’ Chronicle Car dealership firm Vertu Motors’s half-year revenue increased thanks to the acquisition of Burrows Motor Company, which added nine dealerships and expanded Vertu’s Toyota, Mazda and Kia networks. Although Britain’s new car market remains weak and a cyberattack disrupted operations, Vertu’s after-sales business is doing well, and sales of electric vehicles are growing, supported by new government grants. The stock still seems “good value”. 61p BP The Telegraph Energy giant BP is a risky investment owing to its reliance on oil and gas prices, which can lead to volatile profits amid economic uncertainty. Half-year profits fell 32% and dividend cover declined, while payout growth may be limited in future. But the group has cut costs by $1.7bn since 2023 and renewed its focus…

China is “wielding its most potent tool of economic coercion” – its dominance of rare earths – in an attempt to extract trade concessions from Donald Trump, say Christian Shepherd and Lyric Li in The Washington Post. Beijing’s “dramatic” expansion of export restrictions on rare earths last Thursday came “out of the blue”, according to Trump, but it was the culmination of a longstanding push by China to boost its bargaining power by cultivating a near monopoly in rare earths. China accounts for 70% of rare-earth mining and 90% of the processing of these 17 metals. From 8 November, 12 of those will now be subject to export controls and, under a new global licensing requirement due to take effect on 1 December, all overseas firms will have to apply…

● With their bidding war for Warehouse REIT wrapped up, Blackstone and Tritax Big Box Reit are “now getting into bed together”, says AJ Bell’s Russ Mould. The US private-equity giant is selling about £1bn of logistics assets to Tritax and taking a 9% stake in the Reit as part of the deal, becoming its second-biggest shareholder. Blackstone “clearly has a strong appetite for UK property”, since it has confirmed that it is also considering a bid for self-storage group Big Yellow. As with Warehouse, analysts think it could face stiff competition – Big Yellow says that it has also spoken to other potential bidders. But “throwing its hat into the ring now means [Blackstone] can act fast should Rachel Reeves not announce anything that dampens the appeal of the…

Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance, New York University “The Indian market is going through a phase of consolidation right now after a period of growth, and that might not be the worst thing,” says Aswath Damodaran, one of the leading researchers on investment valuation. “At the start of this year, I called India the most overvalued market in the world, and it is in terms of pure data,” he tells the Economic Times. “It trades at the highest multiple of earnings of any market. Even if you factor in the growth, the price/earnings [ratio] that you’re paying… is far higher than I think it should be.” With rising uncertainty, US tariffs and trade wars, risks have only increased since. However, while tariffs will be negative in the near term, India…

capx.co At this year’s Tory party conference, leader Kemi Badenoch rallied the troops around the slogan of “responsible radicalism”. That may seem odd for a party in opposition, says Mani Basharzad. But it is just what is needed. When an opposition party talks about the pain of spending cuts as much as the “pleasures of tax cuts”, it “signals seriousness” – “the willingness to be the adult in the room”. Beneath the rhetoric lies a deeper shift. The Conservatives are increasingly aware of Britain’s fragile economic state and are positioning themselves as the true middle ground – not, as with Blair, between socialism and capitalism, but the new third way between statism and identity politics, “which is capitalism itself – a defence of markets, prudence and enterprise as moral as…

US beverages group Keurig Dr Pepper has been under attack from shareholders over its plan to buy European coffee firm JDE Peet’s for €15.7bn, with its shares falling more than 25% since the deal was announced in August. Now activist hedge fund Starboard Value has built an undisclosed stake in the group and is in talks with management. The details of Starboard Value’s demands are not public, but they revolve around “improving execution and restoring investors’ confidence”, says the Financial Times. Investors have pushed Keurig Dr Pepper to separate its coffee and beverage arm – reversing the 2018 merger between Keurig and Dr Pepper Snapple – and improve the scale of the coffee business in response to rising competition. However, the debt-funded deal to buy JDE Peet’s is seen as…

Reward flights are one of the biggest perks that come with some American Express credit cards. The Avios points you clock up can earn you heavily discounted flights, and some customers can effectively double the value of their points with a British Airways companion voucher. These vouchers make your Avios points go further by allowing you to take someone else on the same flight and in the same cabin without spending extra points. You can redeem up to two of the same type of companion voucher in one booking, letting you bring up to four passengers along for the same cost in Avios as one ticket. Solo travellers can use the companion vouchers to secure a 50% discount on the Avios price of their flight. While your voucher can let…

Digital currencies (cryptocurrencies) have moved from the outer fringes of investing into the mainstream in recent years. While it’s been a roller-coaster ride for investors – this page’s advice to short bitcoin on certain occasions paid off – crypto is here to stay. Governments and regulators progressed from ignoring it to fighting it; now they are trying to jump on the bandwagon by allowing investors access through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, while bitcoin might not be in a bubble, some of the companies involved in it are. Chief among these is the group of companies known as bitcoin treasury companies. These firms’ business models involve buying a load of bitcoins and holding them on their balance sheets in the hope that investors will be willing to value their shares at…

The Ashoka WhiteOak Emerging Markets Trust engages in bottom-up stockpicking to find great businesses at attractive valuations across emerging markets. The trust runs a portfolio that is generally balanced relative to the benchmark to reduce macro risks; stock selection drives performance. Stocks are selected by a dedicated team of investment professionals and go through an internally developed framework assessing companies’ environmental, social and governance (ESG). The trust focuses on maintaining a well-diversified portfolio rather than making big individual bets on companies, sectors or countries. Samsung Electronics (Seoul: 005930) is a South Korean leader in technology with strong positions in semiconductors, smartphones, displays and other electronic devices. In the computer-memory market, Samsung remains a major player in both the DRAM and NAND subsectors, with scale and cost advantages built over decades.…

“In June, Zohran Mamdani, a… 'democratic socialist', [won the New York] Democratic mayoral primary… Wall Street executives and financiers earning in excess of $1m per annum could be on the hook for further state taxes under Mamdani’s plans… Texas is routinely cited as one of the chief beneficiaries of the relative decline of New York’s financial district… The Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE), based in Dallas, has… plans to begin listing shares in the first quarter of 2026… The state is home to the second-highest number of Fortune 500 companies behind California… At a time when… high-profile UK public companies… have switched their primary listing to New York, it’s conceivable that… a Mamdani victory in next month’s [mayoral] election could even force a rethink among UK corporates as to the wisdom…

Shares in housebuilder Bellway rose by 5% this week after it announced trading numbers that matched forecasts, raised the full-year dividend and launched a £150m share-buyback programme, says Royston Wild in Forbes. Revenue rose 16.9% to £2.8bn in the year to July, while pre-tax profit climbed 27.9% on an underlying basis to £289m. Completions jumped 14.3% to 8,749 units and average asking prices went up to £316,412. But while Bellway’s management believes it “remains very well-positioned to continue delivering much needed high-quality new homes in the years ahead”, it also warned the start to the fiscal year had been affected by “a continuation of weak consumer sentiment which has carried from late spring”. A 27% jump in operating profit is usually cause for “jubilation”, says eToro’s Mark Crouch. But Bellway’s…

Americold Realty Trust and Lineage, which both operate warehouses for storing frozen and fresh food, seem like a “cool bargain”, says Barron’s. The two stocks offer “ample” dividends, with Lineage yielding 5.3% and Americold 7.4%. Americold may be the better investment, with its lower valuation, higher yield, and better market value; moreover, it has no controlling shareholder. The sector has faced challenges since its 2021 pandemic peak owing to new capacity emerging and the impact of diet drugs. But higher meat and fresh-food consumption is expected over the long term, while Americold is on a “deep” discount to its replacement cost.…

Emmanuel Macron has “frozen his flagship pension reform in an effort to save his fragile government from collapse”, says Henry Samuel in The Telegraph. Sébastien Lecornu, the French prime minister who unexpectedly resigned last week before being reappointed four days later, announced on Tuesday that the implementation of the 2023 pension law would be suspended until after the 2027 presidential election. It would have raised the retirement age from 62 to 64. In return, Socialist MPs said that they would not support Thursday’s vote of no confidence. Lecornu insisted that it was “not a capitulation”, but a “pause for responsibility”. The prospect of a bit of political stability triggered a “relief rally on French markets”, say William Horobin and Samy Adghirni in Bloomberg. However, dropping the reform is set to…

There are times when either you are missing the obvious, or the market is. Commercial property feels like one of those times. Most UK real estate investment trusts (Reits) trade at wide discounts to net asset value (NAV), with shares still lower than they were a decade ago, despite a regular flow of solid operating updates from key players. We can clearly worry about certain sub-sectors – eg, the oversupply of lower-grade offices, made fit only for redevelopment by new energy-efficiency standards or changing work patterns. Yet UK commercial real estate is very diverse: we tend to notice and talk about offices out of all proportion to their share, as Marcus Phayre-Mudge of TR Property Investment Trust (LSE: TRY) pointed out at the Association of Investment Companies Showcase last week.…

A new chapter for money Rafik Omar and Vinden Wylde The Conversation Money is “entering a new digital chapter”, say Rafik Omar and Vinden Wylde. “Tech firms, decentralised communities and even AI-powered platforms are building alternative value systems that challenge the monopoly of national currencies.” Supporters argue that central banks have too much power, from manipulating interest rates to bailing out financial elites, while ordinary savers bear the costs through inflation or higher borrowing charges. Others remain sceptical about replacing a central bank’s authority, associating it with stability and trustworthiness. As for Donald Trump’s proposed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, it is not a “truly libertarian system”, but a hybrid model whereby the issuance of money “may become privatised” while control of the US’s financial reserve strategy “remains firmly in…

project-syndicate.org Russia has weaponised its control of oil and gas, with some succcess, says Harold James. China has done the same with its stranglehold on key raw materials, particularly rare-earth metals. The US under Donald Trump has been “scrambling” to imitate these strategies, ramping up energy production, pouring public money into promoting the development of rare-earth production and weaponising its control of the global reserve currency. But the US has not been as successful as Russia and China. It is, after all, much easier for other countries to develop alternatives to the dollar than for America suddenly to develop its own rare-earths industry – the US’s newest rare-earth company, MP Materials, is backed by the Pentagon, but will not start producing till 2028 or later. Short-term oil and gas production…

Britain’s investment establishment is firmly convinced that the US market – and in particular the technology-centric “Magnificent Seven” stocks – are an investment bubble that is destined to implode as the “hype” surrounding AI dissolves. Terrified by the speed and scale of the bull market, which they failed to foresee, they are desperately waiting for a repeat of the 2000-2003 collapse. In the US, they think differently. The Magnificent Seven’s market share of the S&P 500 has doubled to 32% since the end of 2022, while its share of corporate earnings has risen from 13% to 23%, points out veteran strategist Ed Yardeni. The share of the information technology and communication services sector in the S&P index has just passed the peak of 40% reached in early 2000, but it…

For investors ready to take the plunge into the VCT market, choosing the right vehicle from the 20 or so funds raising money is vital. We asked Alex Davies of Wealth Club to pick his favoured funds for 2025-2026. Here are his three top picks. Northern VCTs: “These long-standing VCTs [manager Mercia is raising money for Northern Venture Trust, Northern 2 VCT and Northern 3 VCT] target more established companies with growth potential. Mercia’s sweet spot is regional businesses – more than half the portfolio is outside London and the southeast – in the healthcare and technology sectors. This is an area where Mercia is getting success after success. The latest example is beauty technology firm Beauty Tech Group, which floated at the start of October at a £300m valuation.”…

● “Stamp duty must be the most damaging tax in Britain,” says Ben Wilkinson in The Times. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch “has played a blinder by pledging to kill it off”. The rates have risen massively in the past 30 years. The tax now brings in £12bn a year for the Treasury but it was “never designed to hit ordinary families buying homes, rather it was a cheeky way of extracting a snippet of wealth from the very richest”. Stamp duty puts people off moving regularly. Instead, young families stretch themselves to the limit to buy a home they can stay in for as long as possible. “The result is many homebuyers have been left financially exposed and vulnerable to rising interest rates.” When the tax was suspended during Covid…

It has not been a good few weeks for French president Emmanuel Macron. After last month’s resignation of prime minister Francois Bayrou, who had replaced Michel Barnier in December 2024, Macron appointed minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu. But after less than a month in office Lecornu resigned, only for Macron to reappoint him. At the time of writing, the various opposition parties have submitted a motion of no-confidence, which means that Macron could again be looking for a new prime minister within a matter of days. Whether Lecornu survives for the moment or not, there have been calls for Macron to step down as president and call an immediate election to give the French people a chance to decide a new occupant of the Élysée Palace. Unsurprisingly, Macron…

Albert Einstein is, of course, most famous for formulating his General Theory of Relativity. He also made important contributions towards quantum theory even if he was at times as puzzled by his findings as the rest of us. That the Nobel Prize in Physics was last week awarded to a trio of scientists for their work, conducted 40 years ago, into quantum mechanics just goes to show how far we’ve come and how much we have yet to understand in this scientific field. What is less well remembered is that Einstein had other pursuits besides working out how the universe is put together and one of these was playing the violin. Einstein is thought to have owned around ten violins during his lifetime. But what is believed to be his…

Besides Einstein’s photos and documents (see left), Christie’s books and manuscripts sale this week featured an early printed version of the letter written by Christopher Columbus announcing his discoveries in the New World. That letter, addressed to the King and Queen of Spain, in 1493, soon hit the printing presses in “one of the world’s first media frenzies”. Then as now, a scoop of this order needed pictures. So, when the letter made its way to Basel, in Switzerland, some woodcut images were added – the first illustrations to depict the Americas (even if Columbus famously never realised he’d visited).The printed book from 1494, called De Insulis nuper inventis, is also the first to feature a map of the Americas. The map of the Caribbean is highly inaccurate, but it…